Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-03-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58329 14021 218 339 124 25 0 0
OW 658 1501 227 334 210 71 2 0
VODI 1829 434 220 487 563 263 33 0
ODI 1767 118 70 285 601 469 73 0
CDI 0 105 21 140 732 2351 1375 12
VCDI 0 131 71 218 415 7518 34704 49746
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58405 13827 151 202 71 13 0 0
OW 648 1712 255 311 184 55 12 0
VODI 1816 543 241 489 419 176 2 0
ODI 1784 101 79 337 537 317 38 0
CDI 0 65 27 201 855 2105 1018 13
VCDI 0 94 58 341 1089 9292 38314 44613
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58795 13771 142 159 99 4 1 0
OW 638 1483 270 381 193 63 14 0
VODI 1824 289 221 588 575 118 9 0
ODI 1775 54 60 298 835 505 21 0
CDI 0 34 21 140 1052 3247 757 30
VCDI 0 28 18 64 701 9320 39514 42699
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57873 14278 196 191 80 1 1 0
OW 611 1185 274 501 217 55 26 0
VODI 1817 309 189 509 616 169 12 0
ODI 1785 83 57 242 748 630 31 3
CDI 0 29 23 131 989 3373 1349 8
VCDI 0 29 32 103 668 8465 38795 44127
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57873 14305 211 198 77 1 1 0
OW 613 1166 261 503 215 54 26 0
VODI 1816 305 189 504 629 177 12 0
ODI 1784 83 53 242 746 632 38 3
CDI 0 33 33 133 1016 3465 1340 14
VCDI 0 21 24 97 635 8364 38797 44121

Date: 2025-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58759 13417 181 173 16 8 0 0
OW 630 1378 237 448 171 46 7 0
VODI 1808 461 188 510 548 149 14 0
ODI 1795 164 75 313 522 533 73 2
CDI 0 181 70 301 832 2488 1978 8
VCDI 0 50 48 173 461 7218 35248 49128
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58759 13449 201 178 25 10 0 0
OW 631 1359 231 453 169 47 5 0
VODI 1810 458 175 508 574 149 17 0
ODI 1792 165 81 314 510 561 92 2
CDI 0 165 63 296 830 2552 1959 12
VCDI 0 55 48 169 442 7123 35247 49124

Date: 2025-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59588 13736 96 112 51 0 0 0
OW 614 1608 263 294 139 34 4 0
VODI 1824 361 262 570 458 97 6 0
ODI 1775 40 47 237 842 457 27 0
CDI 0 11 31 122 738 2657 541 12
VCDI 0 15 14 87 322 6335 33625 52758
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59588 13320 87 117 51 1 0 0
OW 611 1594 211 230 149 25 1 0
VODI 1810 556 220 457 372 130 13 0
ODI 1792 170 97 261 559 330 28 0
CDI 0 83 42 206 963 2315 960 11
VCDI 0 48 56 151 456 6779 33201 52759

Date: 2025-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58892 14391 158 117 59 6 0 0
OW 616 1331 267 380 134 29 9 0
VODI 1821 406 221 527 412 124 10 0
ODI 1779 72 55 355 689 447 53 0
CDI 0 71 24 152 792 2356 563 12
VCDI 0 63 42 142 488 6254 31664 54827
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58892 13928 157 148 59 7 0 0
OW 616 1347 173 350 162 33 7 0
VODI 1816 635 237 349 339 172 13 0
ODI 1784 158 94 343 559 335 51 0
CDI 0 134 46 296 917 2663 763 27
VCDI 0 132 60 187 538 6006 31465 54812

Date: 2025-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59800 13389 163 98 49 8 4 0
OW 619 1369 286 417 163 22 16 0
VODI 1829 391 188 574 399 137 7 0
ODI 1767 124 60 307 647 455 90 0
CDI 0 99 57 184 621 2453 952 10
VCDI 0 105 37 169 447 6067 31535 54696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59804 12911 168 154 54 7 4 0
OW 612 1300 207 381 189 41 9 0
VODI 1824 641 174 331 357 190 27 0
ODI 1775 236 103 299 441 374 86 1
CDI 0 248 107 416 869 2556 1347 34
VCDI 0 141 32 168 416 5974 31131 54671


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