Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-03-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60598 13539 122 89 15 5 0 0
OW 753 1622 253 290 73 27 0 0
VODI 1861 709 283 639 341 50 1 0
ODI 1740 205 98 395 576 206 12 0
CDI 1 116 53 280 912 1481 325 24
VCDI 0 79 46 251 788 6149 27401 58402
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59935 14032 205 206 49 12 0 0
OW 713 1382 304 387 142 10 0 0
VODI 1842 597 190 676 447 51 9 0
ODI 1747 231 113 386 524 154 19 0
CDI 0 126 64 269 720 1083 321 1
VCDI 0 111 48 214 731 6835 24662 61262
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60014 13949 296 324 74 12 0 0
OW 691 1397 307 413 162 29 1 0
VODI 1843 443 226 763 480 44 4 0
ODI 1746 133 59 370 704 234 9 0
CDI 0 39 41 192 721 1390 272 4
VCDI 0 67 31 138 632 6593 23686 62277
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59625 14174 249 318 118 39 0 0
OW 675 1340 247 399 154 27 5 0
VODI 1835 518 205 556 486 87 18 0
ODI 1758 154 84 296 596 202 27 0
CDI 0 47 49 269 722 1191 367 29
VCDI 0 58 44 196 849 6049 29317 57431
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59622 14176 287 349 124 33 0 0
OW 678 1339 204 382 157 23 5 0
VODI 1835 515 203 531 484 91 17 0
ODI 1758 142 86 296 579 207 29 0
CDI 0 55 48 275 707 1180 399 10
VCDI 0 64 50 201 874 6061 29284 57450

Date: 2025-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57964 15403 383 345 105 27 2 0
OW 724 1359 237 385 163 27 9 0
VODI 1830 605 244 558 383 128 30 0
ODI 1762 113 87 460 533 230 37 0
CDI 0 74 60 323 832 1092 361 64
VCDI 0 328 44 370 824 4596 31573 56136
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57957 15413 399 371 130 26 3 0
OW 731 1336 213 362 150 24 14 0
VODI 1830 595 243 521 364 132 27 0
ODI 1762 119 94 466 535 229 52 0
CDI 0 89 55 354 819 1064 407 63
VCDI 0 330 51 367 842 4625 31509 56137

Date: 2025-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59047 14267 365 271 91 17 0 0
OW 723 1578 290 435 174 43 3 0
VODI 1849 425 232 733 507 111 17 0
ODI 1737 67 76 371 807 429 57 0
CDI 0 19 29 218 755 1828 942 18
VCDI 0 10 20 98 433 3552 26600 61566
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59064 13929 404 341 110 14 0 0
OW 700 1321 183 401 221 46 2 0
VODI 1829 537 176 509 396 188 22 0
ODI 1763 278 62 364 677 382 69 0
CDI 0 234 98 225 665 1350 790 17
VCDI 0 67 89 286 698 4000 26736 61567

Date: 2025-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58980 13965 282 355 113 35 0 0
OW 726 1316 226 379 225 46 2 0
VODI 1846 448 175 501 564 165 44 0
ODI 1756 149 60 241 652 432 105 0
CDI 0 102 60 205 655 1846 1081 68
VCDI 0 28 28 145 407 4855 29541 58001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58935 13694 294 369 127 20 0 0
OW 733 1117 188 392 231 56 1 0
VODI 1846 502 171 411 509 211 58 0
ODI 1778 243 63 261 639 430 114 0
CDI 16 202 33 144 525 1521 952 86
VCDI 0 250 82 249 585 5141 29648 57983

Date: 2025-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58329 14021 218 339 124 25 0 0
OW 658 1501 227 334 210 71 2 0
VODI 1829 434 220 487 563 263 33 0
ODI 1767 118 70 285 601 469 73 0
CDI 0 105 21 140 732 2351 1375 12
VCDI 0 131 71 218 415 7518 34704 49746
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58262 13976 276 382 139 11 0 0
OW 692 1026 237 408 260 87 4 0
VODI 1829 504 129 410 552 297 50 0
ODI 1799 260 52 184 589 511 120 0
CDI 1 269 57 159 563 1816 1123 17
VCDI 0 275 76 260 542 7975 34890 49741


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