Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-02-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59614 14799 133 134 26 0 0 0
OW 748 1370 214 300 110 11 0 0
VODI 1843 528 178 351 394 111 7 0
ODI 1746 214 98 287 360 430 77 2
CDI 0 114 89 247 570 1040 1141 19
VCDI 0 41 19 174 619 4129 32342 56181
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60973 13287 138 91 29 0 0 0
OW 814 1416 167 241 125 24 10 0
VODI 1840 545 236 422 270 91 29 0
ODI 1749 227 100 410 484 277 49 0
CDI 0 147 75 292 804 1474 481 32
VCDI 0 58 50 197 513 5352 31467 55824
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61342 12892 128 143 30 4 0 0
OW 737 1556 271 289 56 29 11 0
VODI 1855 516 285 736 321 66 27 0
ODI 1731 139 90 477 754 209 39 0
CDI 0 46 30 262 957 1610 531 14
VCDI 0 76 29 134 622 4877 30073 56816
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60055 14109 121 91 14 2 0 0
OW 738 1609 264 256 83 20 7 0
VODI 1849 724 263 728 287 66 6 0
ODI 1737 226 106 376 612 228 34 0
CDI 0 107 56 313 937 1505 552 6
VCDI 0 68 49 249 720 5964 24929 60744
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60055 14174 129 97 9 1 0 0
OW 738 1551 266 258 89 19 6 0
VODI 1851 716 245 718 274 77 6 0
ODI 1735 226 107 381 607 222 48 0
CDI 0 114 66 320 983 1501 561 8
VCDI 0 62 46 239 691 5965 24907 60742

Date: 2025-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59973 13893 327 201 39 6 0 0
OW 722 1514 265 374 109 16 0 0
VODI 1843 676 274 610 384 62 8 0
ODI 1745 200 103 383 528 177 25 0
CDI 0 113 43 276 797 1141 388 12
VCDI 0 102 47 179 747 6263 26470 59775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59974 13981 342 236 38 6 0 0
OW 721 1432 244 343 124 25 1 0
VODI 1844 642 281 625 389 74 10 0
ODI 1744 225 93 365 494 175 22 0
CDI 0 120 56 278 798 1083 410 13
VCDI 0 98 43 176 761 6302 26448 59774

Date: 2025-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59320 14828 226 246 68 5 0 0
OW 692 1602 291 425 145 18 1 0
VODI 1851 491 249 849 476 74 6 0
ODI 1735 87 61 331 753 248 46 0
CDI 0 50 31 203 651 1750 415 0
VCDI 0 24 27 112 498 5883 24930 61112
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59320 14428 232 325 75 17 0 0
OW 689 1459 208 351 185 21 2 0
VODI 1835 605 206 519 450 97 11 0
ODI 1754 289 101 389 428 121 43 0
CDI 0 172 71 323 697 995 316 1
VCDI 0 129 67 259 756 6727 25026 61111

Date: 2025-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60063 13840 281 338 110 25 0 0
OW 688 1251 237 470 179 35 3 0
VODI 1836 413 195 641 486 81 14 0
ODI 1755 143 66 364 681 232 23 1
CDI 0 52 51 217 779 1183 309 23
VCDI 0 41 33 185 824 6227 25793 60642
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60072 13088 279 405 134 35 1 0
OW 678 1435 213 376 164 28 8 0
VODI 1829 679 174 545 369 105 22 0
ODI 1763 256 61 318 548 163 22 0
CDI 0 188 78 271 822 859 208 1
VCDI 0 94 58 300 1022 6593 25881 60665

Date: 2025-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59544 14224 234 261 89 28 0 0
OW 727 1335 245 378 140 21 11 0
VODI 1832 578 248 565 403 101 20 0
ODI 1760 157 83 336 520 211 31 0
CDI 0 68 49 297 653 1226 443 15
VCDI 0 103 62 302 660 5762 31255 55833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59553 13705 240 233 114 38 1 0
OW 715 1496 222 331 138 41 13 0
VODI 1828 626 219 528 374 107 20 0
ODI 1767 233 79 349 434 209 49 2
CDI 0 234 70 255 664 938 346 15
VCDI 0 171 91 443 741 6016 31331 55831


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