Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2025-01-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 197 925 19 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 742 95 112 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 396 73 235 292 0 0 0
ODI 0 106 51 323 437 177 0 0
CDI 0 10 19 143 443 692 412 4
VCDI 0 0 0 8 287 1832 11942 25873
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 211 938 14 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 828 69 60 2 0 0 0
VODI 16 468 97 369 271 9 0 0
ODI 5 160 62 150 478 92 0 0
CDI 0 52 13 69 349 1035 141 9
VCDI 0 42 10 25 143 1834 9532 28308
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 453 1298 10 6 0 0 0 0
OW 6 681 174 266 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 84 398 401 18 0 0
ODI 0 5 8 155 691 121 2 0
CDI 0 11 6 79 429 546 31 6
VCDI 0 0 1 40 223 1818 10206 27614
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 279 1446 60 66 2 0 0 0
OW 1 479 109 334 196 30 0 0
VODI 0 105 63 159 180 225 29 0
ODI 0 18 15 126 76 205 156 0
CDI 0 6 7 58 85 345 290 0
VCDI 0 9 12 41 135 2367 12249 25903
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 280 1669 94 132 25 0 0 0
OW 0 276 79 302 238 46 0 0
VODI 0 99 61 155 158 236 33 0
ODI 0 12 24 106 55 201 96 0
CDI 0 6 6 61 71 390 421 0
VCDI 0 1 2 28 127 2299 12174 25903

Date: 2025-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 424 1464 68 58 8 0 0 0
OW 114 303 63 193 212 31 0 0
VODI 4 185 86 137 157 88 7 0
ODI 0 27 18 120 104 107 15 0
CDI 0 37 8 63 115 160 57 0
VCDI 0 27 13 29 163 2915 11350 26936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 525 1612 92 119 71 5 0 0
OW 17 195 57 163 196 54 1 0
VODI 0 158 71 144 140 94 14 0
ODI 0 43 19 107 101 94 18 0
CDI 0 30 9 43 98 147 59 0
VCDI 0 5 8 24 153 2907 11337 26936

Date: 2025-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 189 1610 52 56 14 0 0 0
OW 17 213 71 187 85 18 0 0
VODI 2 100 61 420 190 73 1 0
ODI 0 5 2 57 78 147 24 0
CDI 0 1 1 15 23 357 119 15
VCDI 0 0 1 17 101 2049 10334 29161
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 190 1699 122 272 132 104 2 0
OW 18 127 23 136 114 122 31 0
VODI 0 77 32 168 81 93 90 0
ODI 0 21 7 96 40 102 85 0
CDI 0 5 3 65 20 153 110 8
VCDI 0 0 1 15 104 2070 10160 29168

Date: 2025-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104 1153 52 95 90 0 0 0
OW 8 124 36 74 282 7 0 0
VODI 1 25 17 144 426 158 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 235 215 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 17 264 166 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 2305 10956 28745
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106 1255 72 148 491 108 20 0
OW 7 37 24 105 150 209 52 0
VODI 0 9 9 85 172 222 94 0
ODI 0 1 0 26 142 100 117 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 96 73 188 8
VCDI 0 0 0 1 53 2237 10700 28738

Date: 2025-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7 815 36 72 39 0 0 0
OW 4 163 44 135 88 92 5 0
VODI 2 51 26 140 220 303 81 0
ODI 0 0 4 60 225 167 124 0
CDI 0 4 10 32 163 242 348 1
VCDI 0 0 0 7 56 841 12889 28370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9 932 71 200 204 457 102 0
OW 2 75 21 65 41 122 137 0
VODI 2 22 17 89 169 92 235 0
ODI 0 0 1 54 127 59 192 0
CDI 0 4 8 23 154 75 224 1
VCDI 0 0 2 15 96 840 12557 28370


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