Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-01-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68486 11123 86 77 29 0 0 0
OW 952 2105 212 287 84 20 0 0
VODI 1983 1015 261 616 541 151 5 0
ODI 1666 362 120 532 798 509 42 0
CDI 0 274 137 434 938 1584 945 4
VCDI 0 207 61 193 877 3605 30054 49435
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67793 11608 96 78 10 1 0 0
OW 896 2029 266 249 120 47 0 0
VODI 1998 966 273 783 534 122 23 0
ODI 1686 362 132 355 846 394 110 0
CDI 21 203 96 283 964 2227 967 9
VCDI 15 203 62 172 414 3660 27121 52616
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66255 13907 148 82 3 0 0 0
OW 845 1636 412 599 137 19 0 0
VODI 1989 374 252 822 708 140 17 0
ODI 1656 141 70 403 1100 379 74 0
CDI 0 102 63 302 934 1786 976 6
VCDI 0 11 18 108 547 3460 29458 50871
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67704 12145 191 124 5 0 0 0
OW 866 1565 298 587 264 39 0 0
VODI 1974 638 209 467 442 310 39 0
ODI 1678 251 106 380 447 570 253 0
CDI 0 193 103 299 699 1806 1050 15
VCDI 0 175 95 325 723 5358 32614 45803
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67747 12751 273 239 35 0 0 0
OW 831 1158 268 600 379 68 2 0
VODI 2000 612 195 452 442 407 60 0
ODI 1644 193 131 359 449 643 256 0
CDI 0 133 81 333 675 1737 1368 36
VCDI 0 120 54 199 600 5228 32270 45782

Date: 2025-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67487 12416 151 135 12 0 0 0
OW 930 1554 211 389 325 51 0 0
VODI 1958 696 263 510 381 144 26 0
ODI 1702 225 97 400 547 387 123 0
CDI 0 255 84 328 725 1733 1192 0
VCDI 0 313 80 279 771 5025 28647 50258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67601 13073 214 284 92 6 0 0
OW 828 1168 237 379 380 89 2 0
VODI 1985 635 237 565 415 186 55 0
ODI 1663 207 82 357 569 537 169 0
CDI 0 170 60 253 728 1668 1267 0
VCDI 0 206 56 203 577 4854 28495 50258

Date: 2025-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65834 14418 186 165 31 0 0 0
OW 828 1359 291 491 208 40 0 0
VODI 1945 353 239 858 508 151 1 0
ODI 1718 56 55 269 549 440 54 0
CDI 0 61 44 185 523 1511 861 15
VCDI 0 14 12 108 443 3665 26632 55689
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65843 14343 305 494 186 106 2 0
OW 828 1131 179 375 292 172 31 0
VODI 1965 494 187 508 381 251 111 0
ODI 1689 193 85 326 365 486 274 0
CDI 0 75 51 255 524 1350 1524 23
VCDI 0 25 20 118 514 3442 25606 55681

Date: 2025-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63684 15321 339 447 139 3 0 0
OW 809 872 217 432 572 43 0 0
VODI 1911 220 126 454 760 322 18 0
ODI 1754 79 36 213 522 548 120 0
CDI 0 59 33 167 367 1498 2130 16
VCDI 0 6 8 29 148 3364 27520 55504
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63690 15133 372 610 661 124 20 0
OW 806 900 147 367 387 296 53 0
VODI 1936 311 130 356 511 455 146 0
ODI 1726 125 49 188 386 530 327 0
CDI 0 85 54 178 377 1060 2343 18
VCDI 0 3 7 43 186 3313 26899 55502

Date: 2025-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63966 14055 245 270 79 4 0 0
OW 829 1093 206 409 324 157 5 0
VODI 1892 406 162 452 533 563 86 0
ODI 1790 104 67 266 510 595 228 0
CDI 0 87 60 197 640 2005 1478 2
VCDI 0 16 12 73 310 2823 28575 55236
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64005 13972 325 510 342 496 102 0
OW 807 1000 147 330 296 253 141 0
VODI 1913 482 111 307 444 452 260 0
ODI 1752 190 72 204 344 632 377 0
CDI 0 98 76 218 580 1567 1572 4
VCDI 0 19 21 98 390 2747 27920 55234


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