Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-12-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68649 13138 183 128 19 4 0 0
OW 906 1436 371 672 217 42 0 0
VODI 2133 458 236 720 815 409 2 0
ODI 1528 104 103 284 624 756 52 0
CDI 0 35 48 191 707 2940 2185 0
VCDI 0 8 3 25 253 3768 27393 49265
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68188 11915 129 100 16 0 0 0
OW 838 1752 367 579 309 50 8 0
VODI 2067 616 216 772 766 402 50 0
ODI 1599 169 77 270 692 923 143 0
CDI 0 118 68 205 590 2024 2026 0
VCDI 0 22 27 71 275 3157 26762 52452
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68113 11678 122 94 3 0 0 0
OW 848 1996 404 424 86 1 0 0
VODI 2009 570 263 956 641 96 17 0
ODI 1636 107 71 325 1237 515 49 0
CDI 0 109 82 160 681 2117 872 0
VCDI 0 15 16 130 362 3975 27194 52836
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68915 10835 79 81 12 0 0 0
OW 919 2168 283 234 101 18 0 0
VODI 1996 926 289 561 578 138 30 0
ODI 1654 242 102 393 891 611 83 0
CDI 0 216 103 317 903 1829 712 1
VCDI 0 175 65 200 910 3631 28938 50671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68986 11761 150 146 21 5 0 0
OW 858 1709 319 307 172 19 0 0
VODI 2026 652 242 586 786 246 27 0
ODI 1614 192 77 348 840 781 146 0
CDI 0 175 89 249 855 1953 1071 8
VCDI 0 73 44 150 721 3223 28519 50664

Date: 2024-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68230 11270 122 51 19 8 0 0
OW 943 2024 228 290 93 35 4 0
VODI 2010 975 256 714 555 99 36 0
ODI 1684 370 123 407 792 442 108 0
CDI 0 276 113 364 961 1680 1133 17
VCDI 0 236 63 176 592 3821 28958 50532
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68332 12266 219 145 43 24 3 0
OW 849 1495 243 491 218 43 11 0
VODI 2042 710 221 589 683 265 65 0
ODI 1644 306 95 404 744 610 175 0
CDI 0 217 92 262 917 1557 1278 45
VCDI 0 157 35 111 407 3586 28707 50504

Date: 2024-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67444 12721 140 81 9 0 0 0
OW 846 1829 411 521 104 14 0 0
VODI 2005 533 339 904 774 93 1 0
ODI 1667 105 51 424 999 493 33 0
CDI 11 82 66 214 753 2295 622 7
VCDI 1 13 20 113 341 3208 25500 55023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67460 12795 213 170 39 27 0 0
OW 827 1406 312 499 238 70 11 0
VODI 2000 691 258 653 720 235 38 0
ODI 1663 162 112 451 717 557 157 0
CDI 18 151 90 333 860 1740 1161 69
VCDI 6 78 42 151 406 3474 24789 54961

Date: 2025-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65735 14064 294 240 27 0 0 0
OW 849 1670 313 590 160 27 0 0
VODI 1980 554 220 563 517 266 20 0
ODI 1668 188 128 356 737 604 110 0
CDI 0 136 69 332 641 1872 1061 17
VCDI 0 85 51 184 700 4328 33928 45526
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65750 14007 363 334 49 18 6 0
OW 832 1353 226 460 179 93 34 0
VODI 1975 695 217 569 544 252 122 0
ODI 1675 258 119 383 645 464 256 0
CDI 0 205 93 345 729 1561 1172 64
VCDI 0 179 57 174 636 4709 33529 45479

Date: 2025-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67608 12122 174 156 9 0 0 0
OW 843 1598 243 525 284 107 14 0
VODI 1967 651 256 505 369 185 118 0
ODI 1685 259 96 401 480 429 261 0
CDI 0 236 81 342 767 1773 1269 19
VCDI 0 282 98 335 672 5297 30196 48098
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67610 11869 219 175 76 10 9 0
OW 836 1390 180 423 231 119 36 0
VODI 1957 835 236 545 420 264 142 0
ODI 1700 349 104 375 422 448 344 0
CDI 0 342 113 430 795 1347 928 18
VCDI 0 363 96 316 637 5603 30399 48099


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