Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2024-12-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2602 2490 10 8 0 0 0 0
OW 116 630 41 53 20 1 0 0
VODI 0 346 33 103 100 93 0 0
ODI 0 70 51 123 171 121 0 0
CDI 0 3 17 92 457 410 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 492 3288 13661 20178
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2252 2110 11 32 8 0 0 0
OW 80 628 76 97 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 356 77 181 106 34 0 0
ODI 0 145 75 133 206 111 0 0
CDI 0 4 11 91 245 761 257 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 334 3439 14360 19572
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2139 2217 15 10 18 6 0 0
OW 25 642 63 95 63 3 0 0
VODI 0 153 60 178 206 54 0 0
ODI 0 21 19 79 208 243 0 0
CDI 0 5 8 31 232 914 205 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 274 2815 13756 21081
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1094 2270 21 18 0 6 0 0
OW 107 592 95 178 86 22 1 0
VODI 0 123 72 145 270 208 0 0
ODI 0 6 16 56 83 265 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 106 977 378 0
VCDI 0 0 8 52 234 2827 11954 23557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1109 2264 45 64 10 5 0 0
OW 88 596 89 160 162 42 1 0
VODI 4 119 55 136 210 286 2 0
ODI 0 12 13 38 88 359 16 0
CDI 0 0 6 36 70 862 506 0
VCDI 0 0 4 46 239 2751 11816 23557

Date: 2024-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 533 1715 30 30 7 0 0 0
OW 74 514 94 227 112 16 0 0
VODI 60 200 46 202 368 212 4 0
ODI 0 18 4 25 159 470 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 81 764 566 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 2471 10327 26458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 548 1807 44 92 22 2 0 0
OW 53 392 72 188 138 38 0 0
VODI 66 234 54 185 376 363 5 0
ODI 0 13 4 19 119 494 47 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 87 790 712 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 2246 10136 26459

Date: 2024-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 209 1252 69 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 608 182 199 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 65 70 349 253 27 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 800 281 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 131 850 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 58 1681 10006 28421
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 209 1161 106 131 25 0 0 0
OW 0 549 125 262 160 36 0 0
VODI 0 201 69 167 439 206 17 0
ODI 0 14 21 59 384 401 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 86 536 928 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 171 1660 9202 28421

Date: 2024-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 196 952 8 2 0 0 0 0
OW 17 835 40 66 33 3 0 0
VODI 65 334 73 167 260 36 0 0
ODI 0 40 37 97 441 426 29 0
CDI 0 8 1 35 142 1016 216 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 289 2239 11332 26430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 196 853 30 60 14 0 0 0
OW 1 869 67 120 157 17 0 0
VODI 38 369 44 121 390 205 1 0
ODI 43 72 17 53 248 571 43 0
CDI 0 5 0 13 77 684 733 0
VCDI 0 1 1 0 279 2243 10800 26431

Date: 2024-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 197 925 19 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 742 95 112 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 396 73 235 292 0 0 0
ODI 0 106 51 323 437 177 0 0
CDI 0 10 19 143 443 692 412 4
VCDI 0 0 0 8 287 1832 11942 25873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 194 980 59 83 4 0 0 0
OW 3 739 74 198 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 404 96 314 404 32 0 0
ODI 0 42 18 200 376 283 14 0
CDI 0 7 10 33 325 497 746 17
VCDI 0 7 0 3 226 1889 11594 25860


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