Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-12-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74458 12142 178 49 4 0 0 0
OW 979 1847 290 386 164 6 1 0
VODI 2281 646 177 456 546 341 23 0
ODI 1304 143 111 303 478 573 77 0
CDI 0 37 54 221 845 1621 653 2
VCDI 0 0 2 95 656 5092 31612 41957
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72745 12471 86 69 9 0 0 0
OW 933 1884 358 426 222 14 1 0
VODI 2234 725 235 542 564 341 42 0
ODI 1361 259 136 288 492 602 166 0
CDI 0 60 65 292 650 2076 1104 2
VCDI 0 0 0 24 458 5176 31618 42080
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71766 13297 89 45 27 10 0 0
OW 865 1745 320 423 131 21 0 0
VODI 2179 468 262 651 576 134 12 0
ODI 1424 96 61 286 624 579 17 0
CDI 0 41 44 121 693 2310 974 0
VCDI 0 1 13 78 404 4459 36301 39263
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69740 13190 138 67 8 14 0 0
OW 939 1505 356 649 190 45 1 0
VODI 2119 419 241 646 678 360 5 0
ODI 1494 75 84 332 553 664 46 0
CDI 0 44 33 185 657 2907 2007 0
VCDI 0 11 11 89 397 3811 28953 47147
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69756 13501 225 184 18 12 0 0
OW 925 1284 332 699 313 75 1 0
VODI 2148 349 208 573 699 468 10 0
ODI 1463 71 62 282 568 880 106 0
CDI 0 39 31 165 539 2685 2331 1
VCDI 0 0 5 65 346 3681 28564 47146

Date: 2024-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68523 12431 181 88 26 0 0 0
OW 901 1428 415 674 234 41 0 0
VODI 2131 590 212 690 855 362 23 0
ODI 1559 141 101 282 671 914 64 0
CDI 0 47 49 205 648 2644 2024 1
VCDI 0 1 10 37 192 3674 26720 51021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68540 12868 288 246 48 2 0 0
OW 887 1061 345 687 343 82 1 0
VODI 2159 554 198 596 929 583 30 0
ODI 1528 126 95 261 577 1102 163 0
CDI 0 29 37 164 573 2519 2531 0
VCDI 0 0 5 22 156 3347 26106 51022

Date: 2024-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68279 11832 164 78 2 0 0 0
OW 825 1869 467 476 81 4 0 0
VODI 2022 356 285 1000 713 104 1 0
ODI 1618 70 47 274 1491 634 22 0
CDI 0 55 41 163 492 2519 737 0
VCDI 0 23 10 68 173 3012 26627 54176
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68277 11752 279 224 44 0 0 0
OW 831 1471 369 656 270 75 0 0
VODI 2045 594 207 614 947 405 53 0
ODI 1591 216 82 258 855 931 169 0
CDI 0 137 58 187 535 1998 2533 11
VCDI 0 35 19 120 301 2864 24632 54165

Date: 2024-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69310 10576 84 41 14 0 0 0
OW 902 2122 233 254 116 20 0 0
VODI 2072 804 259 638 586 138 21 0
ODI 1647 196 92 330 898 638 101 0
CDI 0 172 73 252 644 1791 1039 6
VCDI 0 73 42 164 625 3929 30012 49896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69306 10441 151 162 63 4 0 0
OW 891 1961 257 401 291 54 9 0
VODI 2070 889 166 475 788 386 99 0
ODI 1664 343 86 236 667 860 289 0
CDI 0 206 70 232 579 1633 1878 13
VCDI 0 103 53 173 495 3579 28898 49889

Date: 2024-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68486 11123 86 77 29 0 0 0
OW 952 2105 212 287 84 20 0 0
VODI 1983 1015 261 616 541 151 5 0
ODI 1666 362 120 532 798 509 42 0
CDI 0 274 137 434 938 1584 945 4
VCDI 0 207 61 193 877 3605 30054 49435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68517 11410 198 235 72 34 0 0
OW 926 1839 206 482 311 93 4 0
VODI 2018 995 208 603 687 288 61 0
ODI 1626 372 92 390 682 667 209 0
CDI 0 317 123 282 926 1376 1382 39
VCDI 0 153 50 147 589 3411 29390 49400


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