Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2024-12-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6576 1635 20 25 1 0 0 0
OW 149 623 28 69 39 25 0 0
VODI 1 239 63 116 136 116 4 0
ODI 0 23 13 57 204 231 38 0
CDI 0 11 7 28 206 625 140 0
VCDI 0 5 5 35 122 1917 11139 21195
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5869 2101 26 33 4 0 0 0
OW 0 592 64 123 46 33 2 0
VODI 0 130 72 152 127 139 39 0
ODI 0 10 16 109 122 217 80 0
CDI 0 5 2 18 85 495 213 0
VCDI 0 0 3 18 193 1945 7797 24986
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5021 2035 48 48 17 0 0 0
OW 2 451 110 409 225 5 0 0
VODI 0 44 29 205 180 64 2 0
ODI 0 4 3 60 278 158 29 0
CDI 0 2 1 6 104 647 165 0
VCDI 0 1 0 9 151 1852 9720 23781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4344 1696 22 32 11 0 0 0
OW 7 794 54 120 86 13 0 0
VODI 0 345 86 172 297 408 0 0
ODI 0 5 8 76 231 218 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 179 378 242 2
VCDI 0 0 0 19 170 1752 8846 25218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4349 1839 36 60 18 0 0 0
OW 2 708 51 113 124 57 0 0
VODI 0 290 83 185 293 447 1 0
ODI 0 3 0 55 260 242 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 136 372 278 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 143 1651 8769 25220

Date: 2024-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3642 1692 16 23 10 0 0 0
OW 88 656 38 106 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 319 51 128 281 91 0 0
ODI 0 81 28 133 372 543 92 0
CDI 0 0 1 14 187 480 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 74 1414 12536 22555
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3692 1911 26 47 34 0 0 0
OW 38 462 33 100 95 3 0 0
VODI 0 275 44 138 274 113 0 0
ODI 0 100 31 122 412 554 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 123 480 366 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1378 12339 22536

Date: 2024-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3177 1843 22 10 0 0 0 0
OW 73 956 56 68 3 0 0 0
VODI 1 150 80 236 167 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 10 100 551 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 10 175 687 169 0
VCDI 0 1 4 25 203 2038 12613 22298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3152 1807 52 47 13 0 0 0
OW 98 501 24 85 45 0 0 0
VODI 1 422 29 121 197 71 0 0
ODI 0 170 48 99 321 316 148 0
CDI 0 52 17 73 288 443 514 6
VCDI 0 1 4 24 235 2030 12120 22292

Date: 2024-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2710 2244 15 25 23 0 0 0
OW 72 849 50 62 5 0 0 0
VODI 1 316 71 160 142 16 0 0
ODI 0 57 41 140 284 171 1 0
CDI 0 8 14 91 336 574 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 218 2880 13985 20208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2516 1923 35 71 24 0 0 0
OW 231 503 42 76 43 3 0 0
VODI 36 550 43 106 133 55 0 0
ODI 0 331 37 114 289 356 55 0
CDI 0 166 29 90 256 532 331 4
VCDI 0 1 5 59 263 2695 13659 20204

Date: 2024-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2602 2490 10 8 0 0 0 0
OW 116 630 41 53 20 1 0 0
VODI 0 346 33 103 100 93 0 0
ODI 0 70 51 123 171 121 0 0
CDI 0 3 17 92 457 410 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 492 3288 13661 20178
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2130 1571 7 7 0 0 0 0
OW 453 601 30 61 52 2 0 0
VODI 135 524 40 65 46 45 0 0
ODI 0 406 15 104 234 255 17 0
CDI 0 410 48 111 350 604 212 62
VCDI 0 27 12 77 558 3007 13472 20116


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