Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-11-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89746 10432 264 283 103 1 0 0
OW 1151 1391 356 613 369 24 0 0
VODI 3293 427 271 691 531 108 0 0
ODI 0 120 62 317 706 303 23 0
CDI 0 80 38 194 748 1258 174 0
VCDI 0 44 18 91 529 5858 25175 35018
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89049 9581 381 441 203 0 0 0
OW 1065 1314 313 527 290 49 0 0
VODI 3299 429 195 725 832 255 4 0
ODI 0 126 98 320 684 498 17 0
CDI 0 24 54 261 649 1339 229 8
VCDI 0 14 40 171 710 6494 26713 33409
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87497 10490 291 409 139 30 0 0
OW 1114 1072 268 474 203 30 1 0
VODI 3318 460 213 795 491 75 6 0
ODI 0 130 78 376 998 390 9 0
CDI 0 53 51 212 1001 1873 341 0
VCDI 0 29 47 237 707 5903 28786 32213
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86734 10412 282 267 56 3 0 0
OW 1091 1028 277 610 267 91 1 0
VODI 3336 336 182 604 579 168 24 0
ODI 0 109 74 283 759 733 40 0
CDI 0 38 25 161 757 2081 619 0
VCDI 0 10 4 97 649 7594 37195 23234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86727 10391 271 300 78 10 0 0
OW 1097 1007 279 559 225 36 0 0
VODI 3337 372 188 601 598 201 22 0
ODI 0 109 75 303 800 727 39 0
CDI 0 37 27 150 706 2116 686 1
VCDI 0 17 4 109 660 7580 37132 23233

Date: 2024-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86020 10198 197 227 65 0 0 0
OW 1108 1197 288 494 379 80 0 0
VODI 3356 396 224 559 525 238 28 0
ODI 0 147 92 303 611 675 66 0
CDI 0 22 21 181 733 2025 446 19
VCDI 0 9 6 31 296 5671 28876 35001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86018 10248 210 227 124 0 0 0
OW 1108 1111 273 460 291 61 0 0
VODI 3358 431 216 581 553 255 24 0
ODI 0 126 95 317 613 647 75 0
CDI 0 29 30 183 727 2076 563 18
VCDI 0 24 4 27 301 5650 28754 35002

Date: 2024-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82779 12654 198 146 8 0 0 0
OW 1026 1288 282 429 111 2 0 0
VODI 3351 323 290 848 646 66 5 0
ODI 0 27 42 295 1058 540 39 0
CDI 0 9 9 71 617 2884 440 0
VCDI 0 5 4 10 177 5143 28000 36988
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82779 12365 256 300 93 0 0 0
OW 1031 1233 257 548 355 40 2 0
VODI 3346 484 177 489 786 370 45 0
ODI 0 155 79 248 495 642 85 0
CDI 0 39 45 184 608 1906 438 0
VCDI 0 30 11 30 280 5677 27914 36988

Date: 2024-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82385 11349 261 211 19 0 0 0
OW 1141 1337 310 433 173 33 0 0
VODI 3365 304 222 774 748 203 16 0
ODI 0 33 60 270 990 712 47 0
CDI 0 16 11 111 562 2604 586 15
VCDI 0 22 11 39 210 4918 30598 35711
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82476 10891 281 298 115 29 0 0
OW 1049 1342 223 395 369 87 3 0
VODI 3366 617 207 593 940 595 87 0
ODI 0 139 102 292 555 822 75 0
CDI 0 43 43 189 475 1936 409 11
VCDI 0 29 19 71 248 5001 30673 35715

Date: 2024-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81304 11131 260 200 21 0 0 0
OW 1168 1619 260 454 191 41 0 0
VODI 2997 458 245 588 722 239 8 0
ODI 385 46 52 272 710 748 83 0
CDI 0 16 13 125 722 2579 746 3
VCDI 0 7 9 56 275 4853 30378 36826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81336 10542 280 303 98 47 2 0
OW 1134 1573 205 389 301 114 7 0
VODI 3013 905 201 427 752 501 61 0
ODI 371 210 104 303 553 888 113 0
CDI 0 39 40 223 644 1973 711 4
VCDI 0 8 9 50 293 4937 30321 36825


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