Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-10-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106973 15800 497 1016 958 26 0 0
OW 1769 1759 355 853 835 118 0 0
VODI 2231 401 214 640 752 476 7 0
ODI 0 101 53 205 544 843 29 0
CDI 0 120 53 256 584 1858 459 0
VCDI 0 40 46 115 333 5201 24806 9484
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106740 13090 439 734 488 173 0 0
OW 1835 2262 406 798 1256 545 8 0
VODI 2222 671 310 919 1065 741 23 0
ODI 3 155 47 323 608 789 80 0
CDI 0 152 54 208 580 1538 482 0
VCDI 0 10 36 179 301 6358 21861 12321
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105946 12428 383 539 197 9 0 0
OW 1626 2473 510 832 596 139 0 0
VODI 2383 401 206 824 998 671 7 0
ODI 0 98 38 326 1396 1398 81 0
CDI 0 83 29 126 1843 3723 301 0
VCDI 0 25 42 129 953 7870 24069 7112
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104546 11324 275 573 711 14 0 0
OW 1572 1285 333 794 779 155 0 0
VODI 2474 221 194 595 1438 1131 43 0
ODI 0 56 41 218 1081 1736 97 0
CDI 0 35 39 235 1079 4125 583 0
VCDI 0 33 40 120 344 10478 25361 6652
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104560 11457 299 728 876 46 0 0
OW 1568 1162 298 608 690 249 8 0
VODI 2464 216 198 628 1374 1042 46 0
ODI 0 50 43 221 1128 1830 85 0
CDI 0 38 43 226 1006 4161 622 0
VCDI 0 31 41 124 358 10311 25323 6652

Date: 2024-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102577 11551 214 196 198 30 0 0
OW 1431 1475 333 535 815 417 7 0
VODI 2672 269 208 591 1001 797 78 0
ODI 0 62 56 283 1011 1815 217 0
CDI 0 20 45 285 890 4237 947 0
VCDI 0 2 8 93 490 9641 26921 8392
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102578 11814 245 276 451 154 0 0
OW 1434 1224 298 496 664 398 27 0
VODI 2668 264 215 572 976 839 75 0
ODI 0 57 57 273 884 1734 206 0
CDI 0 20 44 273 892 4337 1097 0
VCDI 0 0 5 93 538 9475 26765 8392

Date: 2024-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101202 11747 208 136 16 0 0 0
OW 1369 1481 328 367 131 24 0 0
VODI 2755 264 289 943 556 142 0 0
ODI 0 15 26 344 1190 1276 111 0
CDI 0 13 18 107 791 6166 981 0
VCDI 0 0 4 14 377 8878 30111 8430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101195 11197 273 356 299 85 10 0
OW 1400 1679 280 388 400 410 102 0
VODI 2731 501 194 587 588 867 219 0
ODI 0 98 72 281 592 1506 193 0
CDI 0 45 49 257 585 3485 895 0
VCDI 0 0 5 42 597 10133 29784 8430

Date: 2024-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99586 12210 223 267 24 1 0 0
OW 1347 1447 357 448 135 4 0 0
VODI 2796 347 230 743 574 126 1 0
ODI 0 56 79 377 956 454 29 0
CDI 0 5 20 245 1183 3487 580 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 386 11871 30071 10133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99601 11284 295 505 340 53 0 0
OW 1352 1906 210 382 413 152 7 0
VODI 2776 633 250 518 575 640 162 0
ODI 0 164 74 317 804 1049 300 0
CDI 0 75 68 294 707 2744 971 0
VCDI 0 3 12 76 419 11305 29241 10133

Date: 2024-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98146 12273 320 374 67 4 0 0
OW 1323 1382 358 634 235 24 0 0
VODI 2826 397 252 701 683 182 0 0
ODI 0 49 56 399 791 544 36 0
CDI 0 7 22 264 1137 2238 578 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 459 10734 29032 14254
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98160 11655 455 746 396 108 1 0
OW 1338 1484 198 441 416 128 10 0
VODI 2797 777 188 481 638 656 184 0
ODI 0 145 104 349 602 958 347 0
CDI 0 38 51 304 921 2375 1139 0
VCDI 0 9 12 80 399 9501 27965 14254


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