Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-10-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114540 15806 363 195 3 0 0 0
OW 1974 1416 356 763 266 2 0 0
VODI 1910 285 162 652 999 110 4 0
ODI 1 70 51 214 839 774 66 0
CDI 2 32 35 141 519 2482 1137 0
VCDI 2 18 9 47 241 4213 19280 10831
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111298 17584 585 627 57 0 0 0
OW 1990 1415 379 733 350 26 0 0
VODI 1941 343 111 525 743 607 1 0
ODI 0 153 63 176 480 995 48 0
CDI 2 204 60 176 391 1763 1326 0
VCDI 0 16 22 96 411 4118 21948 9047
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108468 19344 634 682 34 0 0 0
OW 1854 1088 360 742 203 4 0 0
VODI 2129 206 156 847 853 90 0 0
ODI 0 75 33 239 845 600 41 0
CDI 6 97 43 164 521 2514 756 0
VCDI 0 22 6 39 257 4746 18374 13738
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107975 16475 722 1575 281 9 0 0
OW 1788 1424 322 637 529 68 0 0
VODI 2201 262 209 619 819 330 0 0
ODI 0 88 41 217 646 829 10 0
CDI 3 143 59 185 546 1897 540 0
VCDI 0 35 27 90 317 4921 25019 8952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107981 16611 756 1702 376 28 0 0
OW 1782 1247 294 511 486 92 0 0
VODI 2201 305 195 598 740 321 0 0
ODI 0 87 47 237 616 705 11 0
CDI 3 145 61 181 591 1883 482 0
VCDI 0 32 27 94 329 5025 25076 8952

Date: 2024-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106041 15042 549 785 662 208 0 0
OW 1805 2038 416 742 1437 246 1 0
VODI 2150 552 265 768 937 498 33 0
ODI 0 117 49 268 593 771 38 0
CDI 0 119 38 271 605 1813 437 0
VCDI 0 38 40 104 333 4988 21710 13303
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106044 15470 606 928 952 294 0 0
OW 1804 1609 390 628 1340 236 9 0
VODI 2148 550 234 757 773 456 24 0
ODI 0 117 50 265 531 632 38 0
CDI 0 118 38 245 664 1739 318 0
VCDI 0 42 39 115 307 5167 21830 13303

Date: 2024-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106030 13357 389 561 200 15 0 0
OW 1662 2775 478 625 465 96 0 0
VODI 2341 326 284 1007 1097 627 30 0
ODI 0 85 45 323 1770 1151 110 0
CDI 0 29 50 168 1383 3491 422 0
VCDI 0 0 9 95 885 6422 22847 9160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106089 12690 440 739 672 383 13 0
OW 1746 2103 358 646 941 1030 93 0
VODI 2198 1210 220 684 1208 765 157 0
ODI 0 262 114 248 773 601 54 0
CDI 0 250 57 276 728 1393 234 0
VCDI 0 57 66 186 1478 7630 22858 9160

Date: 2024-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105352 11652 434 779 312 3 0 0
OW 1639 1612 459 983 562 193 0 0
VODI 2425 277 199 883 1430 862 10 0
ODI 0 61 65 283 1097 1594 57 0
CDI 0 49 32 250 1170 4398 423 0
VCDI 0 58 16 97 363 9885 24764 6082
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105405 10478 403 929 427 222 2 0
OW 1731 1855 298 686 926 1198 93 0
VODI 2278 996 281 808 1437 2042 142 0
ODI 2 172 126 433 987 1127 64 0
CDI 0 102 67 252 860 2964 477 0
VCDI 0 106 30 167 297 9382 24476 6082

Date: 2024-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104008 11019 193 309 547 19 0 0
OW 1528 1314 308 633 982 199 0 0
VODI 2513 233 224 511 1198 1011 42 0
ODI 0 50 57 259 1144 1767 241 0
CDI 0 26 41 282 922 4261 550 0
VCDI 0 7 17 159 342 9524 26011 8359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103992 9583 142 315 860 142 0 0
OW 1591 1849 224 503 942 717 20 0
VODI 2466 918 228 503 1462 2271 374 0
ODI 0 190 120 257 987 2428 310 0
CDI 0 98 95 339 587 2937 762 0
VCDI 0 11 31 236 297 8286 25378 8359


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