Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-10-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119746 14232 280 192 39 1 0 0
OW 2199 1192 324 712 207 41 0 0
VODI 1648 226 211 820 610 234 3 0
ODI 0 14 27 309 642 597 129 0
CDI 0 21 3 62 444 1657 947 0
VCDI 0 7 2 28 146 4249 21998 6611
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119317 13517 232 196 61 6 0 0
OW 2160 1268 416 693 238 84 0 0
VODI 1795 210 184 912 696 238 2 0
ODI 0 20 29 431 565 701 109 0
CDI 0 24 0 81 511 1700 1096 0
VCDI 0 27 6 18 124 3730 19497 9916
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118383 13954 271 218 15 1 0 0
OW 2020 962 406 648 97 7 0 0
VODI 1852 134 179 1096 591 146 0 0
ODI 0 8 11 205 974 668 38 0
CDI 0 14 3 20 279 2463 780 0
VCDI 0 7 0 6 89 2674 22290 9301
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115523 15228 410 237 7 0 0 0
OW 1992 1127 448 939 119 13 0 0
VODI 1896 160 137 846 857 171 7 0
ODI 2 17 33 175 860 829 107 0
CDI 2 19 2 68 319 2465 1320 0
VCDI 2 23 9 29 120 3238 20839 10215
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115527 15313 516 427 13 0 0 0
OW 1992 1030 352 798 174 32 0 0
VODI 1892 168 126 797 840 228 22 0
ODI 2 21 35 178 791 807 119 0
CDI 2 17 0 63 338 2309 1298 0
VCDI 2 25 10 31 126 3340 20834 10215

Date: 2024-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113236 16617 352 380 14 0 0 0
OW 1992 1350 319 695 374 66 0 0
VODI 1921 345 136 505 996 276 1 0
ODI 2 134 64 206 695 867 18 0
CDI 2 86 68 197 609 2070 1299 0
VCDI 0 20 10 62 400 5046 20744 8636
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113251 16772 437 564 93 3 0 0
OW 1984 1202 252 597 397 96 0 0
VODI 1914 337 120 434 981 320 5 0
ODI 2 147 63 181 644 789 35 0
CDI 2 76 71 203 568 2089 1255 0
VCDI 0 18 6 66 405 5028 20767 8636

Date: 2024-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110503 18096 520 465 23 0 0 0
OW 1933 1393 344 539 130 3 0 0
VODI 1977 208 251 1010 599 57 75 0
ODI 0 74 28 232 1081 539 62 0
CDI 0 62 33 186 517 3159 504 0
VCDI 0 2 4 23 180 3735 19386 12877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110492 18145 658 831 178 6 0 0
OW 1965 999 285 708 417 171 0 0
VODI 1956 308 85 412 808 734 15 0
ODI 0 161 60 144 379 915 81 0
CDI 0 198 68 221 356 1740 727 0
VCDI 0 24 24 139 392 3927 19204 12877

Date: 2024-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107256 19212 768 919 99 16 0 0
OW 1826 1181 295 707 380 34 0 0
VODI 2163 247 178 658 1027 186 0 0
ODI 0 78 40 236 655 761 18 0
CDI 4 139 48 172 535 2191 553 0
VCDI 0 40 18 64 271 5269 21640 10926
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107217 18475 759 1093 354 79 0 0
OW 1882 1503 281 652 569 240 8 0
VODI 2146 373 161 555 866 757 173 0
ODI 0 158 41 175 368 615 356 0
CDI 4 210 52 131 351 1384 645 0
VCDI 0 178 53 150 459 5382 21029 10926

Date: 2024-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106973 15800 497 1016 958 26 0 0
OW 1769 1759 355 853 835 118 0 0
VODI 2231 401 214 640 752 476 7 0
ODI 0 101 53 205 544 843 29 0
CDI 0 120 53 256 584 1858 459 0
VCDI 0 40 46 115 333 5201 24806 9484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107043 14884 528 1230 1286 127 0 0
OW 1825 1883 275 631 684 304 10 0
VODI 2105 717 187 593 899 935 101 0
ODI 0 249 49 139 328 1091 309 0
CDI 0 318 78 181 251 1027 1080 4
VCDI 0 170 101 311 558 5038 23801 9480


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