Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-10-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122708 13060 154 149 67 0 0 0
OW 2273 1237 364 609 175 5 0 0
VODI 1601 288 188 861 894 96 0 0
ODI 0 41 32 256 998 769 8 0
CDI 3 17 15 78 523 3677 1023 0
VCDI 0 5 0 10 96 5625 18208 4697
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122404 12682 136 133 55 9 0 0
OW 2248 1268 378 783 192 67 0 0
VODI 1639 349 162 691 827 364 14 0
ODI 0 99 72 206 725 907 69 0
CDI 0 24 26 148 379 2294 2002 0
VCDI 0 8 3 20 136 4508 20922 3861
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120837 14189 184 182 21 0 0 0
OW 2142 1254 325 367 127 18 0 0
VODI 1725 155 236 997 447 127 0 0
ODI 0 8 9 260 949 526 27 0
CDI 0 5 1 23 442 2243 340 0
VCDI 0 2 0 6 90 4605 24139 3802
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120830 13745 162 129 36 1 0 0
OW 2203 1222 433 492 172 34 0 0
VODI 1638 227 214 932 485 156 0 0
ODI 0 20 29 309 803 505 33 0
CDI 0 10 5 61 424 1839 559 0
VCDI 0 7 0 14 166 4976 21709 6230
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120831 13846 216 170 51 3 0 0
OW 2202 1134 386 490 163 39 0 0
VODI 1638 214 205 897 538 138 0 0
ODI 0 19 30 303 722 505 39 0
CDI 0 10 6 60 434 1811 500 0
VCDI 0 8 0 17 178 5015 21762 6230

Date: 2024-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119469 13982 270 233 52 0 0 0
OW 2183 1220 353 657 257 62 0 0
VODI 1669 234 176 800 684 274 9 0
ODI 0 24 34 372 540 701 113 0
CDI 0 19 1 66 495 1610 1009 0
VCDI 0 11 6 15 167 4103 19908 9032
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119476 14087 302 296 75 2 0 0
OW 2176 1120 338 624 271 64 0 0
VODI 1669 225 157 740 672 266 6 0
ODI 0 24 35 390 508 695 111 0
CDI 0 19 2 75 510 1525 779 0
VCDI 0 15 6 18 159 4198 20143 9032

Date: 2024-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119036 13804 178 176 4 0 0 0
OW 2046 1011 464 507 81 12 0 0
VODI 1828 127 199 1264 507 102 0 0
ODI 0 12 5 275 1075 595 64 0
CDI 0 15 3 17 355 2562 555 0
VCDI 0 5 0 6 117 3128 21661 9014
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119008 13352 242 302 95 33 0 0
OW 2085 1329 416 576 200 114 4 0
VODI 1817 213 143 957 604 296 5 0
ODI 0 29 40 306 672 720 117 0
CDI 0 20 2 79 408 1582 1063 0
VCDI 0 31 6 25 160 3654 21091 9014

Date: 2024-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116245 15230 378 368 17 0 0 0
OW 2013 924 351 841 135 8 0 0
VODI 1868 174 157 980 695 161 3 0
ODI 0 12 33 186 969 728 60 0
CDI 0 18 6 49 307 2460 935 0
VCDI 0 8 2 21 60 2935 21799 9674
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116247 14090 392 522 113 33 2 0
OW 2112 1745 281 578 226 126 4 0
VODI 1766 376 173 909 583 359 21 0
ODI 1 76 47 306 726 677 160 0
CDI 0 37 26 101 458 1566 940 0
VCDI 0 42 8 29 77 3531 21670 9674

Date: 2024-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114540 15806 363 195 3 0 0 0
OW 1974 1416 356 763 266 2 0 0
VODI 1910 285 162 652 999 110 4 0
ODI 1 70 51 214 839 774 66 0
CDI 2 32 35 141 519 2482 1137 0
VCDI 2 18 9 47 241 4213 19280 10831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114482 15292 422 419 54 0 0 0
OW 1999 1513 235 492 320 28 0 0
VODI 1939 524 191 660 808 332 6 0
ODI 3 134 62 199 731 740 41 0
CDI 4 100 45 169 621 1303 628 0
VCDI 2 64 21 73 333 5178 19812 10831


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