Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-09-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122651 13792 269 251 8 0 0 0
OW 2588 1517 501 955 323 23 0 0
VODI 1306 344 183 1134 1174 499 6 0
ODI 0 36 37 291 1710 1914 116 0
CDI 0 14 6 45 495 6201 2258 0
VCDI 0 2 0 1 22 5531 13400 1207
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122562 13220 301 339 53 0 0 0
OW 2521 1524 425 940 513 18 0 0
VODI 1389 256 191 895 1413 558 14 0
ODI 0 35 16 180 1301 1837 85 0
CDI 0 20 10 46 228 5453 1704 0
VCDI 0 6 0 6 32 3794 16084 2841
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122389 13678 203 132 9 0 0 0
OW 2297 1379 418 494 108 1 0 0
VODI 1544 197 220 1246 700 106 0 0
ODI 0 24 22 228 1321 855 4 0
CDI 2 7 6 33 307 4390 2386 0
VCDI 0 12 3 9 30 2247 22093 1710
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123256 12629 134 137 65 0 0 0
OW 2281 1321 397 461 153 21 0 0
VODI 1594 258 224 1061 636 127 0 0
ODI 0 31 30 331 1017 769 16 0
CDI 3 10 9 49 475 4050 1136 0
VCDI 0 9 4 14 61 4417 18937 4687
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123260 12666 182 201 53 0 0 0
OW 2277 1274 373 427 188 18 0 0
VODI 1594 260 199 983 580 139 0 0
ODI 0 39 30 380 1026 651 9 0
CDI 3 11 9 48 504 4270 1273 0
VCDI 0 8 5 14 56 4306 18807 4687

Date: 2024-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122414 13142 161 156 81 1 0 0
OW 2260 1126 357 731 215 18 0 0
VODI 1618 320 173 669 895 300 0 0
ODI 1 71 56 280 827 818 29 0
CDI 0 13 12 118 696 3172 1121 0
VCDI 0 7 0 7 97 5343 18811 4694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122430 13197 212 282 81 1 0 0
OW 2244 1041 307 601 259 19 0 0
VODI 1618 329 170 641 816 245 1 0
ODI 1 90 56 320 811 789 30 0
CDI 0 14 13 107 749 3329 1291 0
VCDI 0 8 1 10 95 5269 18639 4694

Date: 2024-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122220 13103 106 72 10 0 0 0
OW 2162 1262 350 351 70 10 0 0
VODI 1696 192 244 1136 426 72 1 0
ODI 0 11 32 305 1086 573 42 0
CDI 0 7 4 57 415 2512 468 0
VCDI 0 4 0 6 86 3476 24889 3354
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122267 12490 173 196 81 13 0 0
OW 2241 1476 283 477 185 135 0 0
VODI 1570 444 157 859 546 330 30 0
ODI 0 121 78 241 794 675 97 0
CDI 0 42 39 117 319 1983 1846 0
VCDI 0 6 6 37 168 3507 23427 3354

Date: 2024-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121561 13344 141 131 38 0 0 0
OW 2199 1274 334 414 172 24 0 0
VODI 1630 208 231 917 412 197 0 0
ODI 0 9 21 293 786 555 35 0
CDI 0 8 0 27 444 2091 396 0
VCDI 0 6 1 13 85 5300 24159 3354
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121544 12380 162 201 110 9 0 0
OW 2236 1776 262 433 228 233 7 0
VODI 1610 567 213 744 468 473 72 0
ODI 0 91 70 305 642 660 136 0
CDI 0 26 18 68 322 2269 1078 0
VCDI 0 9 3 44 167 4523 23297 3354

Date: 2024-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119746 14232 280 192 39 1 0 0
OW 2199 1192 324 712 207 41 0 0
VODI 1648 226 211 820 610 234 3 0
ODI 0 14 27 309 642 597 129 0
CDI 0 21 3 62 444 1657 947 0
VCDI 0 7 2 28 146 4249 21998 6611
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119725 13438 293 301 99 24 0 0
OW 2228 1608 286 700 304 157 0 0
VODI 1640 501 188 682 650 497 85 0
ODI 0 85 63 267 515 714 225 0
CDI 0 17 10 114 331 1476 1398 0
VCDI 0 43 7 59 189 3911 21369 6611


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