Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-09-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123108 12805 103 20 5 0 0 0
OW 2571 2798 677 574 53 4 0 0
VODI 1464 332 476 2302 805 74 1 0
ODI 0 36 35 647 3220 1174 50 0
CDI 0 26 9 42 1268 7239 2557 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 73 6843 9416 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120864 14702 235 188 9 0 0 0
OW 2501 2539 561 809 177 12 0 0
VODI 1514 411 366 1709 1199 265 2 0
ODI 0 37 34 262 2084 1771 84 0
CDI 0 22 6 46 541 8995 2682 0
VCDI 0 6 0 2 9 8494 7672 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123110 13512 219 126 8 0 0 0
OW 2555 1858 557 775 98 1 0 0
VODI 1334 326 260 1554 1070 144 2 0
ODI 0 14 33 435 2484 2214 82 0
CDI 0 15 1 32 375 11070 3299 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 0 2955 10173 118
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122740 13752 308 209 13 0 0 0
OW 2636 1537 447 976 297 42 0 0
VODI 1272 343 227 1021 1215 498 2 0
ODI 0 39 40 306 1807 2493 81 0
CDI 0 23 9 34 407 6436 2785 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 5893 12139 773
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122754 13794 322 273 27 1 0 0
OW 2619 1523 434 970 253 45 0 0
VODI 1275 319 229 993 1292 446 14 0
ODI 0 30 35 255 1712 2406 93 0
CDI 0 28 11 55 451 6517 2735 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 5947 12165 773

Date: 2024-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123033 13072 255 385 16 0 0 0
OW 2563 1500 436 1069 294 13 0 0
VODI 1350 264 194 1060 1369 453 4 0
ODI 0 27 28 219 1314 2017 61 0
CDI 0 26 17 41 361 6137 2216 0
VCDI 0 5 0 12 29 4290 14940 1740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123049 13174 299 415 36 0 0 0
OW 2541 1415 393 1015 305 15 0 0
VODI 1356 243 200 1076 1287 437 12 0
ODI 0 29 19 210 1278 1897 56 0
CDI 0 27 17 51 442 5917 2083 0
VCDI 0 6 2 19 35 4644 15070 1740

Date: 2024-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121895 14256 259 165 8 0 0 0
OW 2331 1146 450 725 76 0 0 0
VODI 1506 123 189 1541 671 38 0 0
ODI 0 15 12 241 1793 620 3 0
CDI 0 7 0 13 572 5778 1275 0
VCDI 0 5 0 0 10 2226 20079 2782
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121851 13956 314 319 26 2 0 0
OW 2451 1302 428 1194 341 21 0 0
VODI 1430 236 147 1006 1266 548 8 0
ODI 0 23 10 143 1191 1678 108 0
CDI 0 29 11 20 275 3995 2127 0
VCDI 0 6 0 3 31 2418 19114 2782

Date: 2024-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123090 12815 176 194 72 0 0 0
OW 2278 1343 377 429 184 11 0 0
VODI 1576 178 227 1156 637 146 0 0
ODI 0 21 23 268 1165 789 7 0
CDI 2 9 9 30 455 4221 1702 0
VCDI 0 8 1 15 48 2699 20773 3676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123035 12427 246 318 118 0 0 0
OW 2409 1559 354 730 431 100 0 0
VODI 1500 317 183 859 952 649 49 0
ODI 0 35 15 128 799 1479 101 0
CDI 2 27 14 40 205 3398 2069 0
VCDI 0 9 1 17 56 2240 20263 3676

Date: 2024-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122708 13060 154 149 67 0 0 0
OW 2273 1237 364 609 175 5 0 0
VODI 1601 288 188 861 894 96 0 0
ODI 0 41 32 256 998 769 8 0
CDI 3 17 15 78 523 3677 1023 0
VCDI 0 5 0 10 96 5625 18208 4697
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122644 12235 163 241 172 1 0 0
OW 2256 1787 340 606 364 90 3 0
VODI 1682 519 193 775 807 520 63 0
ODI 0 60 29 277 967 963 92 0
CDI 3 35 22 50 381 4074 1327 0
VCDI 0 12 6 14 62 4524 17754 4697


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