Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-09-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120784 12976 74 31 0 0 0 0
OW 3091 4141 732 466 52 8 0 0
VODI 752 610 702 3189 1067 21 0 0
ODI 0 17 23 866 9473 4516 33 0
CDI 0 20 2 54 1223 9878 1357 0
VCDI 0 9 0 7 12 1623 3001 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122643 11240 64 14 0 0 0 0
OW 3434 3784 600 534 11 0 0 0
VODI 823 713 673 2981 1092 43 0 0
ODI 0 32 33 556 7165 4720 13 0
CDI 0 40 5 51 1205 10905 2295 0
VCDI 0 3 0 8 34 2510 2586 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123235 12666 121 12 0 0 0 0
OW 2706 2865 793 533 23 0 0 0
VODI 1101 242 413 2683 544 22 0 0
ODI 0 28 15 635 4973 1262 8 0
CDI 0 29 4 54 1892 12041 1769 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 47 3522 6559 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122524 13347 92 19 0 0 0 0
OW 2605 2803 746 561 20 0 0 0
VODI 1444 292 463 2388 703 83 0 0
ODI 0 33 20 726 3633 1329 32 0
CDI 0 30 9 59 1552 9575 1778 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 217 5257 8457 11
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122574 13409 160 33 0 0 0 0
OW 2709 2707 683 598 28 0 0 0
VODI 1290 321 455 2253 680 106 1 0
ODI 0 37 22 808 3665 1363 48 0
CDI 0 31 10 53 1540 9649 1945 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 212 5126 8273 11

Date: 2024-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123235 12633 150 76 3 0 0 0
OW 2545 2625 673 652 113 7 0 0
VODI 1488 373 417 2101 947 182 2 0
ODI 0 39 46 342 2519 1658 68 0
CDI 0 24 5 35 471 7700 2543 0
VCDI 0 3 0 4 10 7380 9741 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123314 12728 202 88 6 0 0 0
OW 2622 2504 610 698 82 9 0 0
VODI 1332 394 423 1974 956 167 2 0
ODI 0 44 49 401 2544 1877 76 0
CDI 0 24 7 45 462 7104 2445 0
VCDI 0 3 0 4 13 7770 9831 0

Date: 2024-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122189 14331 255 182 4 0 0 0
OW 2603 1895 489 742 163 8 0 0
VODI 1286 368 329 1578 953 242 6 0
ODI 0 13 22 368 2564 2741 69 0
CDI 0 20 2 22 227 12728 4071 0
VCDI 0 1 1 0 0 2530 7804 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122117 13784 195 182 4 0 0 0
OW 2572 2390 552 827 80 0 0 0
VODI 1389 383 305 1570 1180 239 0 0
ODI 0 48 40 257 2241 1506 77 0
CDI 0 19 4 56 395 7969 3636 0
VCDI 0 4 2 0 11 8535 8237 4

Date: 2024-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123192 13486 273 162 2 0 0 0
OW 2677 1721 526 795 145 4 0 0
VODI 1244 322 265 1198 1229 256 7 0
ODI 0 28 42 327 1960 2662 57 0
CDI 0 16 11 36 355 8913 2652 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 10 4131 11959 146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123008 12921 278 235 1 0 0 0
OW 2615 2118 499 782 233 11 0 0
VODI 1490 453 301 1155 1030 396 38 0
ODI 0 54 23 285 1770 1524 76 0
CDI 0 28 16 61 655 5256 2024 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 8779 12537 146

Date: 2024-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122651 13792 269 251 8 0 0 0
OW 2588 1517 501 955 323 23 0 0
VODI 1306 344 183 1134 1174 499 6 0
ODI 0 36 37 291 1710 1914 116 0
CDI 0 14 6 45 495 6201 2258 0
VCDI 0 2 0 1 22 5531 13400 1207
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122517 12970 282 348 119 5 0 0
OW 2630 1959 391 765 311 157 1 0
VODI 1398 639 255 1032 1007 531 45 0
ODI 0 102 60 449 1241 1078 210 0
CDI 0 31 8 82 1028 3925 2481 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 26 8472 13043 1207


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