Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-03-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56468 13967 165 162 24 1 0 0
OW 701 1466 274 417 161 16 0 0
VODI 1747 525 203 530 382 106 11 0
ODI 1874 70 80 404 559 287 27 0
CDI 0 25 31 212 756 2201 1452 4
VCDI 0 10 10 79 558 3784 31523 59538
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55198 14459 373 282 68 0 0 0
OW 694 1495 251 357 199 51 3 0
VODI 1740 601 202 448 330 146 21 0
ODI 1885 152 118 283 565 440 28 2
CDI 0 92 62 361 789 2020 1345 35
VCDI 0 51 45 181 656 3489 31743 59550
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55948 14448 172 114 45 2 0 0
OW 724 1484 319 358 131 47 5 0
VODI 1739 353 243 575 332 116 18 0
ODI 1886 72 86 331 515 391 65 0
CDI 0 29 27 220 522 1629 1235 25
VCDI 0 11 19 178 879 2682 31153 61682
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56550 13598 239 121 32 1 2 0
OW 729 1448 286 351 119 33 0 0
VODI 1745 425 227 510 314 151 20 0
ODI 1878 110 96 313 480 416 113 0
CDI 0 75 62 211 613 1465 1546 12
VCDI 0 37 35 171 667 2903 34420 58286
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56562 13548 241 125 31 3 2 0
OW 717 1461 272 329 127 33 0 0
VODI 1745 466 237 513 293 143 21 0
ODI 1878 114 95 332 491 419 116 0
CDI 0 69 66 211 607 1464 1687 14
VCDI 0 35 34 167 676 2907 34275 58284

Date: 2024-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56746 13264 53 68 42 0 0 0
OW 730 1498 234 298 119 17 4 0
VODI 1747 610 203 477 326 140 43 0
ODI 1874 233 86 302 411 467 186 0
CDI 0 210 90 274 509 1060 1802 1
VCDI 0 37 43 226 609 2617 29935 63219
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56746 13239 64 74 40 0 0 0
OW 730 1478 209 294 128 25 7 0
VODI 1747 632 214 460 311 138 43 0
ODI 1874 276 87 307 408 471 189 0
CDI 0 203 97 287 515 1055 1896 2
VCDI 0 24 38 223 614 2612 29835 63218

Date: 2024-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56481 13769 137 52 14 18 0 0
OW 715 1490 252 208 36 19 0 0
VODI 1753 372 306 676 335 75 12 0
ODI 1874 77 90 335 625 334 55 0
CDI 0 45 47 233 799 1563 900 1
VCDI 0 2 4 44 287 2695 31792 62288
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56516 13235 167 127 32 1 0 0
OW 684 1477 181 252 155 63 5 0
VODI 1739 579 202 392 334 145 62 0
ODI 1884 273 139 285 397 461 139 0
CDI 0 171 124 371 724 1149 1756 4
VCDI 0 20 23 121 454 2885 30797 62285

Date: 2024-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56402 13591 85 80 21 2 0 0
OW 696 1338 252 280 66 29 12 0
VODI 1740 384 186 526 419 79 4 0
ODI 1885 89 89 246 470 455 81 0
CDI 0 47 46 285 802 1594 1887 0
VCDI 0 11 10 64 540 2905 36582 56530
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56432 13200 142 190 35 6 0 0
OW 666 1289 164 310 172 53 14 0
VODI 1735 576 156 285 399 160 59 0
ODI 1890 242 112 284 335 444 237 0
CDI 0 135 79 323 747 1136 2252 0
VCDI 0 18 15 89 630 3265 36004 56530

Date: 2024-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56089 13785 54 86 56 8 0 0
OW 661 1343 260 316 77 4 1 0
VODI 1741 432 199 479 431 128 19 0
ODI 1882 124 94 279 447 483 104 0
CDI 0 77 67 311 761 1465 1859 5
VCDI 0 11 20 138 545 3259 33341 59369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56090 13379 136 155 50 0 1 0
OW 658 1258 175 361 182 32 9 0
VODI 1735 647 139 284 360 206 36 0
ODI 1890 291 118 248 302 439 193 0
CDI 0 196 115 447 931 1447 2220 2
VCDI 0 1 11 114 492 3223 32865 59372


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