Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-03-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57591 13768 89 74 14 3 2 0
OW 639 1462 270 306 64 13 18 0
VODI 1783 531 232 588 375 48 18 0
ODI 1827 214 107 409 601 327 41 0
CDI 0 157 63 333 876 2545 1501 1
VCDI 0 19 23 77 547 3867 26021 63366
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57375 13371 108 83 27 9 1 0
OW 623 1521 246 300 94 19 11 0
VODI 1770 629 248 570 383 87 24 0
ODI 1843 239 126 451 595 430 78 0
CDI 0 137 73 323 850 2790 1850 4
VCDI 0 10 14 56 291 3103 22120 67928
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57263 13821 72 37 17 6 0 0
OW 716 1661 288 295 33 12 0 0
VODI 1763 306 283 861 414 61 7 0
ODI 1855 58 36 327 822 448 21 0
CDI 0 17 24 161 728 2632 967 26
VCDI 0 0 1 69 327 3627 28340 62408
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56954 13745 139 120 17 0 0 0
OW 694 1516 272 407 114 6 0 0
VODI 1751 433 234 590 434 100 10 0
ODI 1869 54 75 296 606 454 37 0
CDI 0 17 13 198 628 2306 1416 0
VCDI 0 20 11 79 490 3899 30157 60649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56976 13803 131 135 20 0 0 0
OW 672 1473 277 395 98 12 1 0
VODI 1754 410 237 584 452 102 11 0
ODI 1866 59 76 314 614 500 40 0
CDI 0 18 13 187 642 2293 1289 8
VCDI 0 22 10 75 463 3858 30279 60641

Date: 2024-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55885 14233 225 172 56 0 0 0
OW 686 1533 224 376 186 24 0 0
VODI 1741 565 204 490 371 131 13 0
ODI 1882 136 95 350 547 340 35 0
CDI 0 86 51 271 795 2200 1288 0
VCDI 0 21 35 207 653 3822 31211 59670
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55892 14294 241 187 48 0 0 0
OW 679 1496 200 363 204 28 1 0
VODI 1744 556 220 487 368 136 15 0
ODI 1879 123 88 368 537 381 45 0
CDI 0 82 48 260 802 2145 1298 4
VCDI 0 23 37 201 649 3827 31188 59666

Date: 2024-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55621 14747 177 165 48 1 0 0
OW 733 1506 336 319 152 27 1 0
VODI 1740 346 258 645 395 130 12 0
ODI 1885 50 60 311 569 433 36 0
CDI 0 29 44 144 633 1932 799 0
VCDI 0 4 25 182 697 3194 36319 56105
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55652 14289 203 181 65 2 0 0
OW 702 1476 221 268 180 62 6 0
VODI 1736 618 241 434 290 153 17 0
ODI 1889 183 103 365 399 574 64 0
CDI 0 93 79 284 784 1765 1714 4
VCDI 0 23 53 234 776 3161 35366 56101

Date: 2024-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56711 13782 100 81 34 1 0 0
OW 753 1440 273 340 123 38 0 0
VODI 1740 447 214 525 334 119 9 0
ODI 1884 130 78 295 489 384 79 0
CDI 0 75 48 211 591 1516 1346 15
VCDI 0 25 45 197 756 2996 33780 58806
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56741 13237 142 134 62 12 0 0
OW 722 1487 175 267 141 82 6 0
VODI 1736 657 183 394 297 179 32 0
ODI 1889 273 115 293 339 471 110 0
CDI 0 167 96 353 663 1235 1681 11
VCDI 0 78 47 208 825 3075 33385 58810

Date: 2024-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56278 13704 115 118 56 4 0 0
OW 729 1437 243 317 146 41 1 0
VODI 1746 560 206 456 340 168 36 0
ODI 1875 177 100 295 464 465 145 0
CDI 0 127 88 285 483 1126 1987 13
VCDI 0 11 21 206 663 2467 32946 60165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56287 13591 191 267 101 16 5 0
OW 718 1266 189 278 253 117 16 0
VODI 1743 605 134 261 286 313 78 0
ODI 1880 289 104 266 221 313 276 0
CDI 0 216 100 392 567 960 1800 16
VCDI 0 49 55 213 724 2552 32940 60162


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