Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-03-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58343 13441 150 123 32 2 0 0
OW 635 1659 178 280 108 57 0 0
VODI 1784 816 219 405 226 123 30 0
ODI 1826 304 131 461 555 264 46 0
CDI 0 387 114 416 1077 1358 605 0
VCDI 0 247 89 306 970 7551 32119 53373
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57361 14043 148 143 25 2 0 0
OW 612 1402 228 397 98 49 28 0
VODI 1776 562 177 526 264 82 48 0
ODI 1836 316 104 470 564 222 63 0
CDI 0 358 97 531 1106 1806 836 2
VCDI 0 135 82 253 855 6550 29274 57379
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57152 14450 134 126 26 5 0 0
OW 655 1480 287 307 40 18 16 0
VODI 1798 418 206 650 367 50 6 0
ODI 1819 186 109 411 690 327 54 0
CDI 0 128 69 395 1087 2560 894 0
VCDI 0 12 10 44 643 5420 28761 59000
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57283 14003 381 49 31 1 0 0
OW 666 1529 272 286 52 14 4 0
VODI 1787 533 245 572 290 71 11 0
ODI 1821 204 98 423 610 304 26 0
CDI 0 161 78 357 973 2660 1100 4
VCDI 0 7 17 87 647 3902 24322 64929
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57292 14001 391 49 31 1 0 0
OW 657 1514 271 268 46 12 4 0
VODI 1787 547 228 607 303 73 13 0
ODI 1821 212 104 393 613 298 24 0
CDI 0 160 85 379 987 2688 1186 6
VCDI 0 3 12 78 623 3880 24236 64927

Date: 2024-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57435 13552 111 73 26 16 2 0
OW 628 1477 262 322 84 31 14 0
VODI 1776 591 245 513 416 91 24 0
ODI 1836 209 131 443 523 378 80 0
CDI 0 138 60 305 833 2678 1801 0
VCDI 0 14 15 75 361 3817 23498 65926
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57435 13549 132 71 25 16 1 0
OW 628 1453 256 309 72 31 14 0
VODI 1776 627 231 526 431 91 28 0
ODI 1836 210 124 434 524 347 69 0
CDI 0 132 69 336 849 2809 1915 1
VCDI 0 10 12 55 342 3717 23392 65925

Date: 2024-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57508 13615 65 47 22 2 0 0
OW 681 1671 269 262 36 7 0 0
VODI 1766 377 316 860 402 59 6 0
ODI 1849 56 68 380 925 448 25 0
CDI 0 25 24 126 634 3336 830 3
VCDI 0 1 6 42 188 3311 25140 65422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57581 13066 67 43 37 9 2 0
OW 609 1591 224 319 56 6 8 0
VODI 1763 692 234 609 480 123 18 0
ODI 1851 262 135 360 521 519 82 0
CDI 0 114 72 307 832 3039 1854 14
VCDI 0 20 16 79 281 3467 24037 65411

Date: 2024-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56946 13583 443 63 25 0 0 0
OW 721 1576 267 356 80 7 0 0
VODI 1760 387 230 683 454 90 4 0
ODI 1860 53 82 320 738 416 28 0
CDI 0 17 16 174 780 2458 1152 17
VCDI 0 4 7 50 531 3706 28437 62289
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57025 12988 374 85 52 9 3 0
OW 642 1490 264 349 103 12 6 0
VODI 1760 767 202 416 455 177 23 0
ODI 1860 309 137 436 511 470 62 8
CDI 0 66 68 298 914 2610 1836 37
VCDI 0 0 0 62 573 3399 27691 62261

Date: 2024-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56468 13967 165 162 24 1 0 0
OW 701 1466 274 417 161 16 0 0
VODI 1747 525 203 530 382 106 11 0
ODI 1874 70 80 404 559 287 27 0
CDI 0 25 31 212 756 2201 1452 4
VCDI 0 10 10 79 558 3784 31523 59538
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56519 13416 136 134 42 6 0 0
OW 650 1487 247 397 122 19 2 0
VODI 1746 764 165 453 400 146 32 0
ODI 1875 320 146 385 527 381 138 0
CDI 0 60 57 355 795 2348 1788 35
VCDI 0 16 12 80 554 3495 31053 59507


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