Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60971 12777 117 94 22 9 0 0
OW 815 1480 175 232 67 13 5 0
VODI 1850 667 223 432 273 47 21 0
ODI 1738 214 99 263 435 373 23 0
CDI 0 112 78 278 634 1462 836 4
VCDI 0 9 18 162 1228 5512 35933 51109
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60110 12627 368 78 30 3 0 0
OW 801 1763 174 176 118 38 4 0
VODI 1844 811 304 514 170 69 30 0
ODI 1748 185 111 453 380 115 35 0
CDI 0 149 75 286 852 1311 402 0
VCDI 0 63 53 325 1436 7974 34511 50314
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60247 12885 128 76 22 5 0 0
OW 805 2026 309 239 90 35 2 0
VODI 1848 447 316 661 282 68 3 0
ODI 1740 87 52 348 463 155 8 0
CDI 0 69 39 330 785 1435 250 1
VCDI 0 91 39 304 1193 8024 33931 50972
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60935 12114 63 51 18 0 0 0
OW 803 2087 177 166 56 28 0 0
VODI 1835 842 285 403 177 43 4 0
ODI 1757 245 150 328 297 96 8 0
CDI 0 101 75 416 727 867 423 0
VCDI 0 80 58 281 1441 7870 35086 50417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60935 12123 68 55 25 2 0 0
OW 803 2088 169 177 58 31 0 0
VODI 1836 830 292 397 174 44 4 0
ODI 1756 251 147 341 291 106 9 0
CDI 0 98 74 403 778 932 408 0
VCDI 0 79 58 272 1390 7789 35100 50417

Date: 2024-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59448 13649 123 101 17 1 0 0
OW 829 1756 176 170 68 22 0 0
VODI 1831 758 195 389 163 73 5 0
ODI 1768 282 148 307 257 124 48 0
CDI 0 246 98 338 503 1017 655 18
VCDI 0 24 30 221 1010 6262 38014 49666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59445 13655 137 110 24 3 0 0
OW 831 1755 176 171 68 31 0 0
VODI 1832 738 198 388 171 64 5 0
ODI 1768 297 127 299 271 108 61 0
CDI 0 254 111 362 484 1035 672 40
VCDI 0 16 21 196 1000 6258 37984 49644

Date: 2024-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59729 13460 107 79 39 10 2 0
OW 802 1714 250 235 62 18 1 0
VODI 1824 416 228 608 319 75 4 0
ODI 1774 128 96 316 372 207 15 0
CDI 0 91 57 302 596 1425 554 0
VCDI 0 11 5 63 425 4403 34694 55294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59742 13049 140 120 54 9 0 0
OW 785 1455 210 255 95 56 4 0
VODI 1817 598 165 440 256 99 6 0
ODI 1785 330 75 271 307 171 53 0
CDI 0 268 126 392 577 1173 882 38
VCDI 0 120 27 125 524 4630 34325 55256

Date: 2024-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58155 14245 351 99 41 16 0 0
OW 745 1673 192 175 76 17 0 0
VODI 1809 628 246 476 365 74 6 0
ODI 1794 215 123 400 460 179 19 0
CDI 0 143 59 274 725 1295 588 1
VCDI 0 132 48 123 481 4233 31226 58903
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58163 13651 381 134 54 11 0 0
OW 734 1599 139 182 140 45 1 0
VODI 1800 811 205 350 296 97 9 0
ODI 1806 425 108 313 384 173 31 0
CDI 0 347 142 435 829 1211 695 22
VCDI 0 203 44 133 445 4277 31103 58882

Date: 2024-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60022 12270 74 64 32 1 0 0
OW 734 1504 177 213 99 12 1 0
VODI 1799 837 234 519 318 87 13 0
ODI 1807 366 128 326 493 228 23 0
CDI 0 326 92 314 706 1353 339 70
VCDI 0 313 98 300 522 5309 35107 53580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60015 11883 111 115 40 0 0 0
OW 741 1343 216 300 153 19 2 0
VODI 1792 832 129 393 310 122 16 0
ODI 1814 567 99 227 402 224 35 0
CDI 0 650 150 401 660 1119 611 139
VCDI 0 341 98 300 605 5506 34819 53511


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