Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2024-01-04

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65591 11366 154 117 18 0 0 0
OW 939 1435 152 243 113 54 0 0
VODI 1841 747 237 404 353 229 32 0
ODI 1848 333 106 378 707 473 88 0
CDI 0 187 71 219 872 1610 875 0
VCDI 0 115 87 291 1055 7020 28823 51627
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64886 11644 136 146 34 6 0 0
OW 909 1487 139 179 105 23 1 0
VODI 1815 883 193 318 293 181 56 0
ODI 1875 409 121 355 505 305 152 0
CDI 0 322 166 346 759 1666 835 13
VCDI 0 144 93 387 1066 6385 27120 54352
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64162 12412 145 82 9 0 0 0
OW 982 1471 207 228 59 1 0 0
VODI 1850 557 211 429 289 98 7 0
ODI 1884 188 97 455 365 214 15 0
CDI 0 92 118 508 968 1600 729 0
VCDI 0 27 30 196 1015 7078 32577 49455
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63298 12560 151 122 8 0 0 0
OW 899 1148 205 301 155 11 0 0
VODI 1912 516 196 415 317 57 15 0
ODI 1920 219 92 316 422 150 20 0
CDI 0 155 54 361 984 1480 781 0
VCDI 0 111 44 343 964 7526 35579 47003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63300 12573 159 129 8 0 0 0
OW 914 1148 204 313 150 12 0 0
VODI 1902 520 191 402 338 63 20 0
ODI 1913 222 93 307 408 148 16 0
CDI 0 143 50 359 975 1533 784 0
VCDI 0 103 45 348 971 7468 35575 47003

Date: 2024-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62088 12396 190 194 49 0 0 0
OW 834 1199 225 289 148 47 2 0
VODI 1813 539 146 332 319 118 23 0
ODI 1982 248 96 197 418 329 38 0
CDI 0 201 78 295 783 1657 1097 5
VCDI 0 125 67 232 1101 7396 32922 50592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62094 12459 202 200 60 0 0 0
OW 834 1171 220 297 141 52 2 0
VODI 1813 518 140 321 318 124 29 0
ODI 1976 247 93 196 412 287 42 0
CDI 0 212 80 276 770 1766 1204 5
VCDI 0 101 67 249 1117 7318 32805 50592

Date: 2024-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62008 12492 268 93 8 0 0 0
OW 796 1617 220 212 47 9 0 0
VODI 1756 334 232 513 337 57 6 0
ODI 1956 43 60 278 567 252 13 0
CDI 0 37 26 174 684 2081 733 0
VCDI 0 22 24 155 1010 6944 33029 51717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62070 11957 292 141 21 0 0 0
OW 836 1333 144 238 108 20 2 0
VODI 1863 752 147 275 297 69 13 0
ODI 1747 273 100 220 364 212 32 0
CDI 0 120 80 307 711 1642 1218 9
VCDI 0 110 67 244 1152 7400 32516 51708

Date: 2024-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61126 13206 100 113 33 5 1 0
OW 776 1455 258 233 90 9 4 0
VODI 1861 505 235 432 277 58 12 0
ODI 1727 100 84 310 443 327 16 0
CDI 0 51 54 191 662 1557 367 1
VCDI 0 11 21 91 835 6598 34873 51702
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61126 12389 108 111 48 7 3 0
OW 770 1504 184 197 78 16 7 0
VODI 1848 885 172 323 298 81 15 0
ODI 1746 331 130 260 315 267 30 0
CDI 0 196 117 322 708 1645 571 4
VCDI 0 23 41 157 893 6538 34647 51699

Date: 2024-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60971 12777 117 94 22 9 0 0
OW 815 1480 175 232 67 13 5 0
VODI 1850 667 223 432 273 47 21 0
ODI 1738 214 99 263 435 373 23 0
CDI 0 112 78 278 634 1462 836 4
VCDI 0 9 18 162 1228 5512 35933 51109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60954 11889 161 189 49 12 0 0
OW 811 1596 135 256 157 40 8 0
VODI 1858 954 167 290 292 155 28 0
ODI 1751 434 92 181 287 356 43 0
CDI 0 376 132 358 556 1339 916 5
VCDI 0 10 23 187 1318 5514 35823 51108


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