Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66232 11806 211 201 125 88 0 0
OW 804 1357 252 372 256 168 6 0
VODI 1937 580 263 663 599 230 69 0
ODI 1725 123 101 548 1211 516 121 0
CDI 0 29 54 358 1228 2625 1336 1
VCDI 0 8 17 150 654 6709 27449 49628
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66645 10878 154 131 123 37 0 0
OW 831 1214 251 360 220 139 0 0
VODI 1897 732 228 590 610 257 23 0
ODI 1771 249 117 417 1091 467 90 0
CDI 0 93 107 397 1185 1988 1292 10
VCDI 0 18 10 103 495 7106 28602 49882
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66288 11075 122 105 23 0 0 0
OW 859 1701 169 227 108 82 7 0
VODI 1873 681 341 635 427 147 22 0
ODI 1809 74 118 499 818 364 72 0
CDI 0 34 47 302 1137 2187 649 0
VCDI 0 8 15 86 812 7330 28533 51024
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66122 11074 78 77 8 1 0 0
OW 916 1581 146 176 95 68 2 0
VODI 1849 844 279 443 348 186 27 0
ODI 1836 257 98 380 812 506 50 0
CDI 0 133 64 343 858 1907 637 1
VCDI 0 92 72 228 930 7261 29025 51000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66123 11175 86 78 9 1 0 0
OW 916 1492 144 159 87 65 0 0
VODI 1846 832 253 441 344 171 19 0
ODI 1838 270 114 394 792 470 48 0
CDI 0 128 66 327 844 1910 652 1
VCDI 0 84 74 248 975 7312 29022 51000

Date: 2023-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65561 11231 131 110 30 2 0 0
OW 937 1426 175 219 108 42 4 0
VODI 1828 726 228 466 296 215 45 0
ODI 1859 358 122 402 528 443 110 0
CDI 0 266 94 263 762 1584 973 2
VCDI 0 150 100 367 999 6779 26977 53892
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65556 11326 132 128 32 1 0 0
OW 943 1328 174 198 92 29 4 0
VODI 1825 739 209 442 316 177 38 0
ODI 1861 334 142 413 496 421 73 0
CDI 0 294 94 271 783 1565 1008 1
VCDI 0 136 99 375 1004 6872 26986 53893

Date: 2024-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64639 12047 142 123 13 0 0 0
OW 934 1817 161 137 90 8 0 0
VODI 1819 522 294 562 251 57 12 0
ODI 1873 149 88 404 528 247 20 0
CDI 0 198 88 304 1040 2261 415 0
VCDI 0 16 28 151 761 6245 31513 50853
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64631 11520 141 133 36 0 0 0
OW 931 1328 112 129 123 10 1 0
VODI 1807 928 207 330 267 77 11 0
ODI 1896 420 119 319 396 310 49 0
CDI 0 346 107 446 861 1767 805 0
VCDI 0 207 115 324 1000 6654 31094 50853

Date: 2024-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64144 12174 119 85 6 0 0 0
OW 958 1316 204 298 80 7 0 0
VODI 1857 537 238 421 245 90 13 0
ODI 1896 227 81 347 482 168 20 0
CDI 0 90 82 400 1145 1488 710 1
VCDI 0 76 44 240 1016 7734 35861 45910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64229 11257 108 61 6 0 0 0
OW 886 1322 127 226 65 8 0 0
VODI 1815 902 177 305 214 86 6 0
ODI 1925 450 139 355 338 264 61 0
CDI 0 353 135 475 1059 1185 980 4
VCDI 0 136 82 369 1292 7944 35557 45907

Date: 2024-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62338 12677 370 138 13 1 0 0
OW 891 1167 207 265 123 18 0 0
VODI 1892 532 167 330 373 114 16 0
ODI 1978 238 87 233 457 222 15 0
CDI 0 204 67 299 801 1537 913 10
VCDI 0 105 54 335 1019 7015 33275 50314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62422 11593 339 136 25 0 0 0
OW 965 1520 141 160 110 14 0 0
VODI 1977 781 175 294 225 123 9 0
ODI 1735 402 98 263 498 256 30 0
CDI 0 445 112 323 843 1653 1173 24
VCDI 0 182 87 424 1085 6861 33007 50300


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