Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-12-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 387 1997 205 352 370 4 0 0
OW 56 527 167 221 403 89 0 0
VODI 17 249 83 334 380 227 0 0
ODI 0 15 18 95 414 351 3 0
CDI 0 1 2 14 297 1155 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 377 2687 8232 26071
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 290 1658 79 168 299 238 2 0
OW 0 479 82 130 147 216 14 0
VODI 0 270 139 289 249 461 23 0
ODI 0 75 56 150 343 530 17 0
CDI 0 4 9 60 141 1175 488 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 188 2198 8001 27175
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 168 1235 72 133 162 176 0 0
OW 0 312 73 154 137 158 6 0
VODI 0 67 55 222 239 175 5 0
ODI 0 5 14 135 397 390 7 0
CDI 0 1 3 29 165 1152 488 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 2299 10055 27104
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 907 39 89 78 189 0 0
OW 0 439 45 101 105 221 0 0
VODI 0 128 26 142 198 240 0 0
ODI 0 7 16 128 348 279 29 0
CDI 0 1 4 38 253 734 264 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 76 2688 10632 27422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 915 43 91 102 244 0 0
OW 0 350 43 88 77 150 0 0
VODI 0 208 23 148 190 210 0 0
ODI 0 8 16 113 333 287 16 0
CDI 0 1 5 54 268 731 218 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 88 2729 10691 27422

Date: 2023-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51 521 40 68 144 26 0 0
OW 33 364 54 101 165 92 1 0
VODI 0 303 52 161 279 90 50 0
ODI 0 39 9 144 414 120 40 0
CDI 0 7 14 91 499 342 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 183 2287 10905 28019
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 49 541 41 81 166 79 0 0
OW 35 321 61 85 127 39 4 0
VODI 0 272 42 169 265 77 47 0
ODI 0 76 11 125 425 119 46 0
CDI 0 24 13 95 474 334 110 0
VCDI 0 0 1 40 227 2309 10917 28019

Date: 2023-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 34 416 39 37 13 8 2 0
OW 7 520 65 70 27 47 14 0
VODI 0 177 82 316 200 71 27 0
ODI 0 6 13 98 526 183 47 0
CDI 0 5 7 28 367 589 226 1
VCDI 0 6 4 43 169 2274 15017 24085
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 460 66 113 82 109 14 0
OW 5 212 48 104 43 74 53 0
VODI 0 272 43 161 175 144 136 0
ODI 0 103 27 91 354 141 119 0
CDI 0 66 11 60 386 414 285 7
VCDI 0 17 15 63 262 2290 14726 24079

Date: 2023-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 308 10 10 11 0 0 0
OW 0 292 59 53 46 58 7 0
VODI 0 297 83 255 239 99 26 0
ODI 0 15 9 100 263 194 96 0
CDI 0 7 3 25 232 570 290 0
VCDI 0 14 10 23 278 3004 11433 27447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 382 25 47 77 84 5 0
OW 0 81 47 79 83 125 52 0
VODI 0 234 41 144 122 192 123 0
ODI 0 104 26 50 140 160 165 0
CDI 0 95 24 106 278 270 682 1
VCDI 0 37 11 40 369 3094 10825 27446

Date: 2023-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 264 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 341 38 37 30 26 0 0
VODI 0 177 63 156 175 169 14 0
ODI 0 118 41 125 240 187 67 0
CDI 0 12 13 31 224 444 228 0
VCDI 0 7 7 32 231 2890 13747 25730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 176 4 7 1 15 0 0
OW 0 270 31 77 110 167 36 0
VODI 0 139 34 47 115 208 87 0
ODI 0 160 42 106 74 218 116 0
CDI 0 113 38 100 201 270 244 2
VCDI 0 61 15 44 399 2838 13573 25728


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