Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68813 12182 339 479 412 10 4 0
OW 963 1689 347 507 610 110 6 0
VODI 2269 892 278 871 1050 441 11 0
ODI 1230 284 102 369 858 748 34 0
CDI 0 249 146 486 859 2385 835 0
VCDI 0 107 41 145 776 6872 23812 48189
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68633 11711 217 275 327 250 5 0
OW 823 1561 229 358 297 255 20 0
VODI 2078 992 331 764 782 753 57 0
ODI 1550 426 169 381 730 1080 111 0
CDI 0 305 133 491 766 2142 1227 0
VCDI 0 135 67 206 707 6447 22717 50302
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68379 11247 200 272 184 178 0 0
OW 816 1448 345 436 215 181 6 0
VODI 2010 495 302 1043 647 245 15 0
ODI 1632 73 81 491 1091 821 55 0
CDI 0 69 49 267 1011 3008 1041 15
VCDI 0 33 37 180 642 6306 25277 49967
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66710 11761 252 280 101 189 0 0
OW 803 1326 221 428 283 229 0 0
VODI 1956 486 253 618 681 307 10 0
ODI 1700 75 98 593 1073 764 92 0
CDI 0 30 44 278 1197 2596 1190 0
VCDI 0 11 32 114 562 7171 25763 50533
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66710 11757 257 281 137 244 0 0
OW 802 1237 215 414 245 159 0 0
VODI 1949 572 248 604 629 280 11 0
ODI 1708 82 100 558 1062 740 75 0
CDI 0 31 48 329 1235 2627 1163 0
VCDI 0 10 32 125 589 7206 25806 50533

Date: 2023-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66013 11663 212 172 170 28 0 0
OW 838 1297 208 378 292 102 1 0
VODI 1913 704 249 602 700 156 50 0
ODI 1750 181 112 523 1042 476 114 0
CDI 0 62 67 408 1284 2107 1212 0
VCDI 0 8 8 86 655 6947 28190 49830
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66011 11703 217 198 204 80 0 0
OW 839 1219 232 350 244 53 4 0
VODI 1911 670 217 614 633 133 47 0
ODI 1753 217 111 461 1035 437 80 0
CDI 0 98 70 444 1298 2157 1302 0
VCDI 0 8 9 102 729 6956 28134 49830

Date: 2023-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66244 11259 133 97 22 10 2 0
OW 834 1668 245 258 71 67 14 0
VODI 1885 471 337 801 487 106 28 0
ODI 1793 54 60 440 1280 516 61 0
CDI 0 21 35 200 1083 2676 833 1
VCDI 0 8 7 57 293 5948 30592 49813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66260 10992 178 183 90 109 14 0
OW 823 1166 189 311 123 99 53 0
VODI 1880 792 212 482 457 235 143 0
ODI 1793 303 116 392 908 407 147 0
CDI 0 199 101 370 1073 2165 1505 7
VCDI 0 29 21 115 585 6308 29668 49807

Date: 2023-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65848 11495 102 77 22 0 0 0
OW 878 1520 182 202 124 74 7 0
VODI 1858 904 269 527 411 149 28 0
ODI 1825 169 118 417 847 372 103 0
CDI 0 89 81 390 1055 1727 524 0
VCDI 0 31 45 177 1020 7446 26288 53409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65797 10827 128 119 89 84 5 0
OW 903 1182 130 228 155 140 53 0
VODI 1873 1057 153 336 328 268 127 0
ODI 1836 616 130 279 613 319 177 0
CDI 0 421 172 477 1009 1313 1112 1
VCDI 0 105 84 351 1285 7644 25476 53408

Date: 2023-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65591 11366 154 117 18 0 0 0
OW 939 1435 152 243 113 54 0 0
VODI 1841 747 237 404 353 229 32 0
ODI 1848 333 106 378 707 473 88 0
CDI 0 187 71 219 872 1610 875 0
VCDI 0 115 87 291 1055 7020 28823 51627
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65374 10490 157 150 28 17 0 0
OW 986 1258 107 230 189 200 40 0
VODI 1928 871 150 252 274 273 113 0
ODI 1931 567 132 293 312 398 142 0
CDI 0 588 115 329 816 1265 938 3
VCDI 0 409 146 398 1499 7233 28585 51624


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