Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71653 14071 394 411 152 52 2 0
OW 1040 1805 417 621 387 85 0 0
VODI 2409 639 260 1135 678 389 14 0
ODI 1231 84 53 303 643 900 158 0
CDI 0 89 28 124 498 2120 956 0
VCDI 0 113 48 158 301 3153 28693 44543
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70113 13789 524 680 131 22 13 0
OW 1031 1854 326 868 526 50 11 0
VODI 2405 643 238 633 1270 310 26 0
ODI 1047 140 69 315 756 970 116 0
CDI 0 147 54 192 656 2327 1329 0
VCDI 0 125 59 233 509 2914 26878 46511
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68879 14074 461 623 251 11 0 0
OW 1131 1682 367 734 447 47 1 0
VODI 2347 590 322 996 793 168 8 0
ODI 1136 122 79 414 970 529 34 0
CDI 0 133 61 246 802 2759 953 0
VCDI 0 66 57 191 654 4199 26430 47043
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67963 13311 332 638 337 10 1 0
OW 846 1865 343 582 579 130 2 0
VODI 2140 787 324 747 1050 397 3 0
ODI 1467 182 109 512 756 719 21 0
CDI 0 158 108 452 1018 2108 992 0
VCDI 0 73 35 142 813 5942 25151 47665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67962 13235 337 650 389 36 1 0
OW 847 1921 334 530 519 114 2 0
VODI 2143 801 327 783 1055 396 6 0
ODI 1464 202 121 560 737 747 21 0
CDI 0 147 96 399 1031 2118 966 0
VCDI 0 70 36 151 822 5895 25174 47665

Date: 2023-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67607 12459 894 382 451 69 5 0
OW 900 1556 356 458 415 176 20 0
VODI 2220 1026 251 757 1083 518 67 0
ODI 1264 361 124 358 955 728 94 0
CDI 0 297 126 479 988 2053 1205 14
VCDI 0 141 50 157 878 6183 24050 48635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67606 12522 906 399 486 76 7 0
OW 901 1497 353 422 348 195 29 0
VODI 2218 1006 227 735 1048 498 70 0
ODI 1266 389 141 433 973 707 80 0
CDI 0 293 122 440 976 2106 1168 12
VCDI 0 133 52 162 939 6145 24087 48637

Date: 2023-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68021 12080 203 286 178 229 7 0
OW 816 1758 292 285 138 169 6 0
VODI 2038 605 438 1206 458 263 18 0
ODI 1599 87 92 585 1125 836 27 0
CDI 0 103 66 312 887 3349 670 32
VCDI 0 32 23 66 470 6629 21744 52582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68013 11667 218 323 261 485 3 0
OW 827 1433 233 338 196 362 16 0
VODI 2046 862 263 694 586 670 60 0
ODI 1588 334 204 724 665 1013 142 0
CDI 0 271 126 467 892 2375 1285 0
VCDI 0 98 70 194 656 6570 20966 52614

Date: 2023-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67250 11915 218 205 167 163 0 0
OW 809 1383 267 496 224 195 0 0
VODI 1983 482 300 805 651 313 6 0
ODI 1665 81 77 593 1133 867 85 0
CDI 0 37 42 262 1004 2727 830 7
VCDI 0 27 27 139 664 6532 25838 50341
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67226 11176 204 235 219 446 4 0
OW 833 1398 205 385 257 338 55 0
VODI 1984 882 222 506 434 472 211 0
ODI 1664 268 158 643 974 910 330 0
CDI 0 121 89 469 1062 1987 1186 0
VCDI 0 80 53 262 897 6644 24973 50348

Date: 2023-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66232 11806 211 201 125 88 0 0
OW 804 1357 252 372 256 168 6 0
VODI 1937 580 263 663 599 230 69 0
ODI 1725 123 101 548 1211 516 121 0
CDI 0 29 54 358 1228 2625 1336 1
VCDI 0 8 17 150 654 6709 27449 49628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66191 11044 189 257 110 178 0 0
OW 845 1486 208 322 365 369 90 0
VODI 1937 924 221 444 580 436 198 0
ODI 1725 291 133 493 973 627 420 0
CDI 0 107 115 521 1171 1678 1284 13
VCDI 0 51 32 255 874 7048 26989 49616


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