Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-12-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74911 13629 360 488 219 90 0 0
OW 1042 1877 431 761 357 158 3 0
VODI 2692 758 285 629 549 425 50 0
ODI 716 222 141 476 600 640 68 0
CDI 0 117 68 236 619 2050 724 1
VCDI 0 29 30 188 668 5499 32814 35190
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72878 13853 435 579 193 68 0 0
OW 964 2086 467 866 295 86 0 0
VODI 2489 540 322 1044 880 510 13 0
ODI 1062 164 109 518 618 780 24 0
CDI 0 71 43 277 671 2065 710 0
VCDI 0 29 27 130 698 4639 29918 39689
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72968 14055 416 358 152 36 0 0
OW 1020 1721 436 695 215 22 0 0
VODI 2431 403 358 1391 841 205 8 0
ODI 1135 45 38 419 1124 575 61 0
CDI 0 31 20 125 690 1993 786 0
VCDI 0 17 10 60 332 4082 31902 39634
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71428 14883 452 462 87 46 0 0
OW 994 1695 388 674 284 38 0 0
VODI 2381 622 366 1218 809 247 12 0
ODI 1200 73 48 386 797 728 108 0
CDI 0 42 23 144 532 1823 784 0
VCDI 0 81 24 89 342 3915 29952 42633
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71415 14980 475 507 109 52 0 0
OW 1003 1575 375 647 281 43 0 0
VODI 2389 650 346 1157 772 252 12 0
ODI 1196 76 63 432 809 709 113 0
CDI 0 43 17 150 544 1910 805 0
VCDI 0 72 25 80 336 3831 29926 42633

Date: 2023-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70406 14140 442 669 206 42 8 0
OW 1093 1762 355 801 521 144 0 0
VODI 2474 613 235 675 1116 486 22 0
ODI 1010 102 53 277 527 1095 151 0
CDI 0 98 28 151 410 2468 1254 0
VCDI 0 148 59 205 313 2760 26247 47244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70415 14152 480 777 225 55 8 0
OW 1056 1685 305 706 555 119 0 0
VODI 2510 673 251 643 1064 513 19 0
ODI 1002 112 49 312 500 1043 168 0
CDI 0 89 31 147 439 2543 1352 0
VCDI 0 152 56 193 310 2722 26135 47244

Date: 2023-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69650 14044 490 552 174 21 4 0
OW 1125 1872 423 654 220 19 9 0
VODI 2360 503 356 1094 730 77 14 0
ODI 1101 93 55 411 1213 539 33 0
CDI 0 118 65 223 957 2890 720 0
VCDI 0 9 20 133 445 3230 27118 47046
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69551 13461 572 767 375 28 16 0
OW 1059 1762 283 660 479 73 18 0
VODI 2286 777 290 663 933 388 38 0
ODI 1340 252 107 408 803 974 155 0
CDI 0 259 64 259 602 2095 1422 0
VCDI 0 128 93 310 547 3218 26249 47046

Date: 2023-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68147 13825 380 619 388 24 0 0
OW 910 1781 380 641 549 111 0 0
VODI 2179 611 285 909 925 259 4 0
ODI 1430 143 83 522 783 644 27 0
CDI 0 111 72 287 869 2976 905 0
VCDI 0 78 52 183 587 5324 26311 46496
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68201 13017 348 602 525 81 1 0
OW 954 1930 305 572 652 219 12 0
VODI 2347 923 297 733 753 599 38 0
ODI 1164 265 125 553 651 1085 127 0
CDI 0 245 90 418 788 2790 1753 0
VCDI 0 169 87 283 732 4564 25316 46496

Date: 2023-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68813 12182 339 479 412 10 4 0
OW 963 1689 347 507 610 110 6 0
VODI 2269 892 278 871 1050 441 11 0
ODI 1230 284 102 369 858 748 34 0
CDI 0 249 146 486 859 2385 835 0
VCDI 0 107 41 145 776 6872 23812 48189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68767 11075 307 506 590 62 5 0
OW 973 1756 261 370 482 214 33 0
VODI 2276 1403 308 760 970 647 59 0
ODI 1259 516 142 467 820 863 238 0
CDI 0 437 134 400 737 2565 1206 0
VCDI 0 216 101 354 966 6215 23161 48189


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