Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78019 13948 193 268 219 11 0 0
OW 995 1603 214 311 180 61 4 0
VODI 2856 933 200 451 447 186 38 0
ODI 535 420 173 324 348 252 50 0
CDI 0 186 153 577 947 1755 182 0
VCDI 0 110 70 236 666 6234 29717 36738
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76315 14850 245 341 122 6 0 0
OW 1051 1642 196 407 190 103 0 0
VODI 2800 893 242 447 516 281 18 0
ODI 614 380 163 353 412 324 18 0
CDI 0 244 129 565 846 1509 314 1
VCDI 0 202 98 311 694 6083 26622 40263
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76452 13911 350 468 183 30 0 0
OW 992 1956 290 445 234 78 0 0
VODI 2797 624 283 666 515 224 4 0
ODI 600 143 115 421 786 603 17 0
CDI 0 120 79 276 1116 2351 449 1
VCDI 0 140 56 139 603 7165 28533 36595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75333 13868 376 672 247 45 0 0
OW 1070 1972 305 382 355 125 4 0
VODI 2735 794 298 600 406 348 52 0
ODI 666 216 117 558 645 545 58 0
CDI 0 139 90 323 927 2000 583 0
VCDI 0 27 35 163 656 5620 35543 31912
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75319 13944 388 702 292 46 0 0
OW 1082 1852 300 351 312 139 6 0
VODI 2742 828 292 621 435 346 54 0
ODI 661 238 123 549 609 497 48 0
CDI 0 126 82 309 933 2058 616 0
VCDI 0 28 36 166 655 5597 35516 31912

Date: 2023-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73308 13946 533 755 217 78 0 0
OW 926 1997 347 830 364 123 1 0
VODI 2522 672 289 876 654 556 34 0
ODI 1024 217 153 438 512 798 76 0
CDI 0 117 58 242 523 2065 734 0
VCDI 0 40 31 147 709 4753 31115 38030
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73362 14100 575 873 235 74 0 0
OW 1005 1814 309 725 343 150 1 0
VODI 2653 680 280 842 663 544 34 0
ODI 760 256 159 460 481 750 77 0
CDI 0 107 61 251 565 2121 766 0
VCDI 0 32 27 137 692 4734 31082 38030

Date: 2023-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72779 14556 325 339 132 36 0 0
OW 977 1922 454 613 102 20 0 0
VODI 2456 422 419 1682 691 127 5 0
ODI 1102 30 37 386 1445 592 23 0
CDI 0 28 18 112 686 2499 486 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 252 4400 31578 39060
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72748 14044 405 563 212 53 0 0
OW 1006 1990 351 664 189 90 3 0
VODI 2457 634 332 1129 764 374 42 0
ODI 1103 158 84 456 959 531 103 0
CDI 0 108 65 244 693 1633 896 1
VCDI 0 24 16 95 491 4993 31048 39059

Date: 2023-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71706 14935 467 419 136 30 0 0
OW 1037 1632 394 691 244 54 0 0
VODI 2408 388 331 1365 875 257 19 0
ODI 1170 51 46 342 1084 584 87 0
CDI 0 33 14 143 698 1926 820 0
VCDI 0 41 23 64 312 4208 30029 41747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71612 14081 443 417 215 56 0 0
OW 1086 1937 370 707 253 131 16 0
VODI 2441 728 277 1102 746 458 113 0
ODI 1182 152 82 411 997 647 148 0
CDI 0 98 64 238 616 1330 924 0
VCDI 0 84 39 149 522 4437 29754 41747

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71653 14071 394 411 152 52 2 0
OW 1040 1805 417 621 387 85 0 0
VODI 2409 639 260 1135 678 389 14 0
ODI 1231 84 53 303 643 900 158 0
CDI 0 89 28 124 498 2120 956 0
VCDI 0 113 48 158 301 3153 28693 44543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71523 13182 373 375 123 56 3 0
OW 1062 1923 278 587 317 115 14 0
VODI 2498 1178 350 957 698 649 101 0
ODI 1250 191 99 427 731 1111 154 0
CDI 0 132 47 239 435 1448 881 1
VCDI 0 195 53 167 355 3320 28670 44542


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