Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80980 13148 260 433 142 8 0 0
OW 1062 1038 242 567 534 90 1 0
VODI 3358 179 169 582 988 164 27 0
ODI 0 52 27 198 1155 530 17 0
CDI 0 25 29 102 1031 2433 434 2
VCDI 0 36 17 92 463 5401 32114 32680
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79836 13145 251 323 101 24 0 0
OW 1041 1320 265 450 351 122 2 0
VODI 3211 312 225 786 541 369 67 0
ODI 163 55 35 369 730 598 119 0
CDI 0 41 26 161 849 2105 711 1
VCDI 0 18 21 101 376 3776 29785 38028
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79828 12742 272 338 115 10 0 0
OW 1047 1406 169 262 156 32 0 0
VODI 2941 524 296 679 610 96 12 0
ODI 441 98 89 377 1082 342 11 0
CDI 0 33 41 175 988 1895 566 0
VCDI 0 13 16 122 513 4429 26712 41332
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77963 13935 435 328 159 60 0 0
OW 990 1349 385 322 142 87 8 0
VODI 2886 716 299 621 419 148 63 0
ODI 500 210 142 516 475 255 31 0
CDI 0 150 81 419 1339 1324 189 0
VCDI 0 88 59 192 948 7394 26742 38441
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77961 13974 480 349 164 61 0 0
OW 993 1300 384 302 151 93 10 0
VODI 2887 715 252 623 402 157 61 0
ODI 498 209 140 510 495 229 35 0
CDI 0 152 85 422 1384 1273 185 0
VCDI 0 98 60 192 886 7455 26742 38441

Date: 2023-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77560 14058 215 275 169 10 0 0
OW 1014 1545 265 380 181 76 7 0
VODI 2823 767 235 580 436 228 26 0
ODI 576 362 117 432 355 314 28 0
CDI 0 198 144 571 899 1733 283 1
VCDI 0 186 72 211 612 6022 24726 42118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77567 14151 217 317 179 12 0 0
OW 1006 1434 278 349 193 79 10 0
VODI 2826 785 216 558 408 234 26 0
ODI 574 347 127 444 366 307 29 0
CDI 0 215 140 573 923 1707 286 1
VCDI 0 184 70 208 583 6044 24719 42118

Date: 2023-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75970 15074 267 354 118 7 0 0
OW 985 2176 327 324 165 55 0 0
VODI 2833 539 361 821 468 113 0 0
ODI 559 105 86 443 948 436 11 0
CDI 0 136 67 277 902 2620 316 0
VCDI 0 71 48 144 382 6091 28264 37947
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75973 14767 299 448 158 23 0 0
OW 973 1487 231 357 342 114 0 0
VODI 2756 899 230 400 540 357 13 0
ODI 645 410 122 320 475 435 15 0
CDI 0 294 162 518 795 1581 202 0
VCDI 0 244 112 320 673 6812 28361 37947

Date: 2023-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76124 13849 328 421 224 34 0 0
OW 1020 1951 267 404 320 91 0 0
VODI 2768 667 277 673 454 278 7 0
ODI 630 217 104 447 684 634 18 0
CDI 0 163 75 342 1172 2454 275 0
VCDI 0 134 39 124 601 5915 32895 33730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76024 12960 334 439 281 70 0 0
OW 1079 1860 190 371 370 290 3 0
VODI 2731 1068 208 490 426 484 15 0
ODI 708 467 124 367 501 417 24 0
CDI 0 347 162 541 1107 1715 152 2
VCDI 0 279 72 203 770 6430 33001 33728

Date: 2023-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74911 13629 360 488 219 90 0 0
OW 1042 1877 431 761 357 158 3 0
VODI 2692 758 285 629 549 425 50 0
ODI 716 222 141 476 600 640 68 0
CDI 0 117 68 236 619 2050 724 1
VCDI 0 29 30 188 668 5499 32814 35190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74674 12403 370 585 264 98 5 0
OW 1206 1839 280 571 276 325 40 0
VODI 2680 1333 244 471 495 533 84 0
ODI 801 593 190 409 435 478 75 0
CDI 0 361 167 504 781 2054 807 4
VCDI 0 103 64 238 761 5374 32648 35187


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