Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9869 2366 89 49 0 0 0 0
OW 74 625 242 322 81 2 0 0
VODI 1 253 153 434 333 48 0 0
ODI 0 79 84 307 404 185 0 0
CDI 0 37 16 100 346 587 13 0
VCDI 0 4 14 34 327 2775 6476 19137
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9379 2275 37 19 0 0 0 0
OW 54 619 127 233 192 0 0 0
VODI 2 276 95 439 466 21 0 0
ODI 0 86 40 272 545 165 0 0
CDI 0 45 29 137 431 582 11 0
VCDI 0 15 15 88 351 2794 6926 19100
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9337 2449 42 25 2 0 0 0
OW 68 547 107 152 38 0 0 0
VODI 7 140 96 431 419 33 0 0
ODI 0 20 17 230 758 287 0 0
CDI 0 2 8 66 562 800 55 0
VCDI 0 1 7 58 432 4594 10940 13136
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8496 2670 90 108 76 0 0 0
OW 64 193 65 356 192 10 0 0
VODI 0 70 38 210 449 77 11 0
ODI 0 20 13 92 625 343 1 0
CDI 0 3 7 47 496 1187 112 1
VCDI 0 3 6 76 519 3140 8861 17139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8507 2683 71 126 117 0 0 0
OW 53 183 85 339 150 2 0 0
VODI 0 63 37 206 427 97 10 0
ODI 0 25 12 87 624 352 27 0
CDI 0 2 8 56 503 1184 110 3
VCDI 0 3 6 75 536 3122 8838 17137

Date: 2023-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7428 3198 35 25 35 8 0 0
OW 45 376 80 129 180 40 0 0
VODI 2 93 37 188 476 233 40 0
ODI 0 23 7 83 459 323 48 0
CDI 0 25 10 55 524 787 198 0
VCDI 0 28 16 91 371 2429 8843 18898
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7442 3235 43 39 35 1 0 0
OW 33 351 78 113 170 53 0 0
VODI 0 80 29 193 471 227 21 0
ODI 0 26 10 85 493 289 80 0
CDI 0 19 10 48 506 769 222 0
VCDI 0 32 15 93 370 2481 8806 18898

Date: 2023-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7249 3127 16 6 0 0 0 0
OW 61 506 45 33 16 11 0 0
VODI 1 143 82 270 142 36 0 0
ODI 0 14 17 117 618 228 17 0
CDI 0 1 0 27 294 978 168 0
VCDI 0 1 10 64 245 2356 9220 19747
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7230 2980 21 12 0 0 0 0
OW 79 547 49 69 64 32 0 0
VODI 2 211 61 200 207 274 21 0
ODI 0 33 16 89 279 422 73 0
CDI 0 20 13 63 436 602 257 0
VCDI 0 1 10 84 329 2279 9054 19747

Date: 2023-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6349 3791 223 44 0 0 0 0
OW 18 444 144 80 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 238 57 152 123 42 10 0
ODI 0 79 32 117 164 158 12 0
CDI 0 31 28 72 191 881 83 0
VCDI 0 4 4 111 316 3497 9555 18812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6275 3628 214 54 3 0 0 0
OW 88 507 120 40 24 25 2 0
VODI 4 327 96 191 169 154 14 0
ODI 0 86 31 107 108 325 61 0
CDI 0 33 21 92 206 874 198 0
VCDI 0 6 6 92 288 3200 9385 18812

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5079 4892 46 63 6 0 0 0
OW 23 509 88 132 29 8 0 0
VODI 1 197 54 135 164 70 9 0
ODI 0 88 20 61 162 155 11 0
CDI 0 27 27 75 184 822 106 0
VCDI 0 2 7 40 284 3091 11151 18048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5037 4609 56 75 17 0 0 0
OW 60 634 55 79 39 44 3 0
VODI 6 345 77 174 192 231 19 0
ODI 0 90 30 93 183 253 22 0
CDI 0 37 18 52 178 867 150 0
VCDI 0 0 6 33 220 2751 11083 18048


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