Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95577 12559 392 789 261 71 0 0
OW 1335 1275 504 1301 633 250 2 0
VODI 2800 281 196 746 1058 894 50 0
ODI 0 58 62 382 793 1534 149 0
CDI 0 14 19 188 983 3958 824 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 418 10029 23733 16683
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 94224 12018 342 506 185 12 0 0
OW 1242 1194 370 1221 990 326 0 0
VODI 2980 222 181 723 1181 914 25 0
ODI 0 44 70 393 702 1393 186 0
CDI 0 19 19 189 663 3200 1301 0
VCDI 0 1 1 34 307 7696 25707 20029
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91856 12561 493 747 154 16 0 0
OW 1182 980 307 698 448 84 0 0
VODI 3046 215 251 804 1109 234 1 0
ODI 0 16 50 471 1286 747 20 0
CDI 0 0 5 94 1573 3062 530 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 567 6819 27682 22698
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91859 11904 337 400 123 23 1 0
OW 1171 1196 296 472 642 105 6 0
VODI 3082 252 222 535 904 456 19 0
ODI 0 44 70 409 820 719 66 0
CDI 0 4 12 179 1024 1720 460 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 649 6224 25538 28844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91850 11992 352 422 257 36 1 0
OW 1180 1106 307 453 531 98 4 0
VODI 3082 253 204 567 943 421 13 0
ODI 0 39 68 383 847 780 66 0
CDI 0 10 6 172 897 1707 548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 687 6205 25458 28844

Date: 2023-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90664 11668 382 568 66 10 9 0
OW 1175 1120 291 567 430 121 2 0
VODI 3102 443 185 554 687 558 8 0
ODI 0 71 88 307 819 815 138 0
CDI 0 18 37 198 886 1499 497 0
VCDI 0 0 1 83 912 7019 25478 29334
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90671 11853 413 659 128 30 7 0
OW 1167 929 264 502 398 173 4 0
VODI 3103 454 195 557 707 532 13 0
ODI 0 70 71 286 895 831 119 0
CDI 0 14 39 178 721 1485 509 0
VCDI 0 0 2 95 951 6971 25480 29334

Date: 2023-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89237 11944 268 273 66 5 0 0
OW 1114 1457 317 479 126 32 13 0
VODI 3270 351 398 900 499 67 0 0
ODI 0 24 39 398 1184 527 10 14
CDI 0 6 21 117 542 2575 248 24
VCDI 0 0 6 43 248 7678 28496 27794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89251 11966 361 487 147 3 1 0
OW 1101 1093 278 522 379 79 12 0
VODI 3268 564 267 598 653 355 4 0
ODI 1 120 84 329 659 743 75 17
CDI 0 32 41 183 474 1905 642 33
VCDI 0 7 18 91 353 7799 28033 27782

Date: 2023-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88219 11648 350 427 76 4 0 0
OW 1118 1254 322 625 301 28 3 0
VODI 3285 454 202 677 588 110 3 0
ODI 0 109 78 410 822 474 3 0
CDI 0 22 31 158 558 2010 486 0
VCDI 0 2 3 46 289 6439 29393 29783
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88221 11284 408 575 124 5 0 0
OW 1114 1180 240 549 571 106 6 0
VODI 3287 609 152 547 576 390 11 0
ODI 0 330 133 369 578 708 89 0
CDI 0 76 45 209 463 1654 1010 3
VCDI 0 10 8 94 322 6202 28772 29780

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87397 10938 284 220 53 2 0 0
OW 1190 1353 399 647 247 54 8 0
VODI 3311 491 287 733 593 232 11 0
ODI 0 119 126 485 609 448 0 0
CDI 0 43 23 176 612 1528 440 0
VCDI 0 5 16 59 458 5163 30279 31771
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87424 10409 345 374 128 14 0 0
OW 1175 1499 329 531 328 111 17 0
VODI 3299 663 240 695 675 327 12 0
ODI 0 288 133 408 618 558 45 0
CDI 0 75 69 240 458 1469 945 0
VCDI 0 15 19 72 365 4948 29719 31771


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