Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3202 4460 307 446 380 5 0 0
OW 0 634 272 697 805 253 0 0
VODI 0 140 102 563 947 397 0 0
ODI 0 18 9 123 430 462 3 0
CDI 0 6 6 38 287 903 80 0
VCDI 0 1 5 26 314 2391 8975 4395
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2999 3795 217 535 291 0 0 0
OW 0 647 169 435 793 130 0 0
VODI 0 327 144 521 1198 436 0 0
ODI 0 27 56 313 805 341 0 0
CDI 0 2 12 167 498 656 10 0
VCDI 0 0 1 27 410 3023 12633 464
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2691 3295 103 306 243 0 0 0
OW 0 439 141 276 349 56 0 0
VODI 0 84 94 374 813 132 6 0
ODI 0 3 7 126 1229 1050 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 870 2366 222 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 70 3998 9985 2679
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2003 2224 248 546 254 43 0 0
OW 0 257 139 306 340 208 0 0
VODI 0 5 13 251 696 520 25 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 663 801 109 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 628 2676 555 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 298 3008 9532 5643
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2003 2324 272 611 320 107 0 0
OW 0 159 117 251 263 175 0 0
VODI 0 3 11 249 714 492 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 546 693 94 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 702 2502 424 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 334 3287 9696 5643

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1676 1440 101 235 103 16 0 0
OW 0 179 121 505 733 198 1 0
VODI 0 2 7 220 496 671 83 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 242 995 180 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 172 2005 645 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 126 2760 8952 9208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1676 1544 139 362 289 39 0 0
OW 0 77 87 443 580 189 10 0
VODI 0 0 3 155 461 612 61 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 221 919 138 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 195 1920 612 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 126 2966 9040 9208

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 873 2096 32 35 1 0 0 0
OW 0 145 66 113 114 5 0 0
VODI 0 23 41 354 384 55 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 678 644 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 338 2431 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 2601 8532 12249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 873 2085 54 145 97 5 0 0
OW 0 168 75 306 410 214 1 0
VODI 0 11 10 68 600 871 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 129 800 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 134 1298 564 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 192 2548 8042 12237

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1406 1662 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 215 48 46 26 5 0 0
VODI 0 25 46 142 190 175 3 0
ODI 0 0 4 52 311 339 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 462 902 294 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 249 3481 11272 10706
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1395 1544 11 6 3 0 0 0
OW 11 318 57 119 164 135 6 0
VODI 0 40 33 104 438 841 192 0
ODI 0 0 1 9 169 468 339 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 120 613 646 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 344 2845 10401 10672

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1557 1609 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 282 11 22 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 51 63 46 70 3 0
ODI 0 34 40 99 101 278 66 0
CDI 0 3 17 77 355 438 192 5
VCDI 0 0 0 13 671 3601 10385 11842
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1518 1462 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 39 411 26 41 33 13 5 0
VODI 0 183 61 131 122 493 127 0
ODI 0 9 30 50 217 291 314 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 316 474 464 4
VCDI 0 0 1 20 496 3116 9736 11843


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