Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99376 15643 775 843 547 12 0 0
OW 1545 1246 498 1109 1171 330 0 0
VODI 2478 340 227 940 1556 524 0 0
ODI 0 94 45 347 999 857 7 0
CDI 0 63 47 179 973 3448 614 0
VCDI 0 6 14 56 561 7710 25191 10439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98993 13996 448 809 345 6 0 0
OW 1446 1584 393 940 1096 182 0 0
VODI 2656 683 275 979 1810 558 0 0
ODI 0 207 144 596 1323 622 18 0
CDI 0 120 69 386 1244 2074 268 0
VCDI 0 3 6 50 731 8901 30709 6140
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98476 13760 260 468 269 0 0 0
OW 1403 1597 463 806 458 61 0 0
VODI 2716 295 364 1154 1316 187 6 0
ODI 0 50 67 429 2028 1337 36 0
CDI 0 5 7 142 1695 4016 272 0
VCDI 0 0 2 17 417 9684 25378 11169
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97336 12232 421 770 299 48 0 0
OW 1354 1442 459 846 511 244 6 0
VODI 2775 329 282 970 1044 664 25 0
ODI 0 56 53 517 1160 1227 114 0
CDI 0 13 16 187 1369 4370 852 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 1004 9091 23835 14882
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97332 12374 488 891 377 110 0 0
OW 1356 1297 380 744 431 207 6 0
VODI 2777 334 289 1018 1053 632 8 0
ODI 0 56 62 456 1059 1068 100 0
CDI 0 11 12 187 1464 4137 699 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1003 9490 24019 14882

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95164 11899 364 617 137 27 0 0
OW 1252 1251 455 1183 972 235 1 0
VODI 2956 219 192 948 1023 845 84 0
ODI 0 45 59 410 871 1395 195 0
CDI 0 14 13 131 760 3660 964 0
VCDI 0 0 1 25 378 9682 22622 19761
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95227 12099 427 808 338 52 0 0
OW 1317 1007 400 1137 834 222 10 0
VODI 2828 266 179 837 1016 770 63 0
ODI 0 42 68 378 775 1293 152 0
CDI 0 14 9 129 831 3651 971 0
VCDI 0 0 1 25 347 9856 22670 19761

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92403 13280 357 322 85 12 0 0
OW 1199 950 357 702 381 31 0 0
VODI 3025 156 271 1239 1136 122 0 0
ODI 0 12 28 374 1849 1125 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 1035 4247 408 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 121 7051 25962 22510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92391 12907 424 623 307 22 0 0
OW 1228 1166 337 954 924 276 1 0
VODI 3008 246 140 558 1319 1112 30 0
ODI 0 59 70 341 751 1232 124 0
CDI 0 19 42 185 770 2836 1058 12
VCDI 0 1 0 25 536 7110 25168 22498

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91810 12511 324 359 110 27 0 0
OW 1173 1134 356 650 440 86 6 0
VODI 3065 234 216 712 945 389 5 0
ODI 0 29 49 374 1012 803 28 0
CDI 0 1 9 104 1137 2430 518 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 405 6286 27351 25719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91779 11866 351 365 153 19 0 0
OW 1225 1545 325 805 789 248 10 0
VODI 3044 343 161 554 1231 1212 217 0
ODI 0 120 71 211 657 1069 361 0
CDI 0 34 42 233 569 2044 1155 35
VCDI 0 1 4 33 650 5429 26165 25685

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91240 11984 402 416 69 26 2 0
OW 1164 1223 298 453 518 109 2 0
VODI 3092 313 201 521 889 460 21 0
ODI 0 67 84 367 890 659 95 0
CDI 0 5 29 219 1065 1325 399 5
VCDI 0 0 1 79 1092 6399 25454 29173
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91193 11247 427 465 271 45 1 0
OW 1224 1591 240 447 595 214 8 0
VODI 3079 631 216 553 987 1008 142 0
ODI 0 115 93 285 837 886 345 0
CDI 0 6 36 225 977 1361 921 4
VCDI 0 2 3 80 856 5464 24556 29174


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