Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109434 15286 388 446 56 0 0 0
OW 1871 1715 392 971 415 29 0 0
VODI 2144 390 212 864 989 181 0 0
ODI 0 112 78 269 825 465 6 0
CDI 0 40 64 282 838 1739 332 0
VCDI 0 0 1 38 315 5145 19166 15312
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105384 17524 452 450 88 0 0 0
OW 1767 1629 364 839 602 44 0 0
VODI 2181 495 176 820 1556 391 9 0
ODI 0 164 69 235 908 545 20 0
CDI 0 91 74 319 934 1684 186 0
VCDI 0 15 26 129 565 5175 19760 15140
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102063 18035 763 1157 261 0 0 0
OW 1627 1413 444 857 324 17 0 0
VODI 2383 215 166 902 985 131 0 0
ODI 0 53 40 230 1308 813 11 0
CDI 0 14 39 186 863 3378 781 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 353 3860 19097 17999
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99219 16831 821 1550 606 36 0 0
OW 1578 1335 419 1119 968 143 0 0
VODI 2448 297 193 896 1237 331 1 0
ODI 0 99 32 276 1037 812 38 0
CDI 0 37 35 162 807 3381 938 0
VCDI 0 7 11 61 440 5935 20554 16120
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99213 17208 854 1643 691 51 0 0
OW 1587 978 387 1038 883 82 0 0
VODI 2445 293 195 925 1322 375 0 0
ODI 0 87 28 239 964 882 54 0
CDI 0 33 38 160 789 3461 1037 0
VCDI 0 7 9 59 446 5787 20440 16120

Date: 2023-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99454 14521 636 728 437 45 0 0
OW 1467 1450 467 1053 928 385 0 0
VODI 2629 550 266 1002 1456 692 1 0
ODI 0 125 112 479 1049 828 0 0
CDI 0 67 69 391 956 2870 288 0
VCDI 0 3 9 68 625 8494 27243 8967
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99432 14913 677 845 554 59 0 0
OW 1492 1185 456 1009 831 351 0 0
VODI 2626 437 236 896 1545 682 1 0
ODI 0 115 114 501 980 996 9 0
CDI 0 63 68 408 924 2669 341 0
VCDI 0 3 8 62 617 8557 27181 8967

Date: 2023-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98847 13877 280 487 141 0 0 0
OW 1423 1878 496 803 336 14 0 0
VODI 2686 346 400 1597 1041 241 0 0
ODI 0 22 30 524 2608 1794 27 0
CDI 0 2 6 71 1209 3819 295 0
VCDI 0 0 1 17 293 9335 25973 9891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98797 13825 413 778 507 64 0 0
OW 1491 1355 345 890 640 517 6 0
VODI 2668 621 271 930 1492 1263 26 0
ODI 0 172 109 498 1090 1122 31 0
CDI 0 149 68 348 1113 1881 296 0
VCDI 0 3 7 55 786 10356 25936 9891

Date: 2023-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97521 13596 302 484 310 37 0 0
OW 1378 1393 467 767 647 195 1 0
VODI 2744 281 238 987 1244 500 16 0
ODI 0 66 72 385 1268 1554 61 0
CDI 0 13 11 121 1695 4838 393 0
VCDI 0 0 1 14 489 9840 24890 11991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97442 13197 350 511 599 248 11 0
OW 1485 1334 312 639 797 664 66 0
VODI 2716 549 246 754 1395 1527 60 0
ODI 0 151 98 378 1064 1832 151 0
CDI 0 112 78 421 975 2925 334 0
VCDI 0 6 7 55 823 9768 24739 11991

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95577 12559 392 789 261 71 0 0
OW 1335 1275 504 1301 633 250 2 0
VODI 2800 281 196 746 1058 894 50 0
ODI 0 58 62 382 793 1534 149 0
CDI 0 14 19 188 983 3958 824 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 418 10029 23733 16683
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95522 12099 444 977 495 369 0 0
OW 1400 1393 294 828 449 693 15 0
VODI 2790 476 269 723 1005 1787 325 0
ODI 0 131 90 319 685 1984 489 0
CDI 0 79 52 369 803 3007 1096 0
VCDI 0 9 24 199 709 8896 22833 16683


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