Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21347 7212 135 118 10 0 0 0
OW 7 673 204 253 66 14 0 0
VODI 0 114 159 670 177 14 0 0
ODI 0 9 14 336 805 42 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 56 687 1078 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 66 2805 8586 60
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21866 6024 120 168 0 0 0 0
OW 12 1011 194 333 35 10 0 0
VODI 0 209 195 750 216 18 0 0
ODI 0 13 18 496 693 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 634 1108 344 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 3636 7648 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20814 6676 162 191 4 0 0 0
OW 0 758 229 383 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 105 560 340 73 0 0
ODI 0 9 15 234 626 438 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 640 1079 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 3734 8451 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19875 6650 222 276 58 0 0 0
OW 0 532 259 512 269 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 54 329 647 72 0 0
ODI 0 13 13 116 440 429 3 0
CDI 0 0 3 77 310 1256 488 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 96 1896 10668 235
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19875 6639 250 318 90 0 0 0
OW 0 538 224 479 284 8 0 0
VODI 0 55 61 302 635 86 0 0
ODI 0 12 11 129 390 467 2 0
CDI 0 1 5 93 334 1230 499 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 87 1862 10658 235

Date: 2023-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19328 5705 272 440 148 4 0 0
OW 0 594 171 563 344 36 0 0
VODI 0 74 53 388 750 170 7 0
ODI 0 27 14 96 513 341 33 0
CDI 0 0 4 28 259 917 455 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1151 12130 839
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19328 5665 280 492 187 4 0 0
OW 0 637 167 569 309 53 0 0
VODI 0 76 49 326 778 181 8 0
ODI 0 21 12 99 485 334 36 0
CDI 0 1 6 29 259 973 443 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1074 12138 839

Date: 2023-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18457 6072 218 227 45 5 0 0
OW 0 434 177 396 117 5 0 0
VODI 0 60 90 485 320 21 10 0
ODI 0 1 9 194 660 124 41 0
CDI 0 0 1 19 643 1219 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 931 9170 5518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18457 5757 219 312 122 2 0 0
OW 0 732 212 590 390 45 0 0
VODI 0 63 44 301 722 355 6 0
ODI 0 13 18 88 397 527 62 0
CDI 0 2 2 30 160 837 505 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 539 8837 5488

Date: 2023-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18204 5637 153 207 20 0 0 0
OW 0 499 162 477 243 4 0 0
VODI 0 106 72 335 491 58 0 0
ODI 0 32 29 186 541 158 2 0
CDI 0 6 8 63 505 1145 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 1397 7974 6970
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18204 5064 114 133 23 0 0 0
OW 0 1023 208 534 277 19 0 0
VODI 0 143 74 452 833 320 5 0
ODI 0 29 20 110 511 635 78 0
CDI 0 21 8 39 161 913 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 875 7573 6970

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18086 5048 135 170 27 0 0 0
OW 0 702 183 556 265 27 0 0
VODI 0 100 93 267 500 111 0 0
ODI 0 29 41 128 430 241 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 99 364 1162 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 50 1653 7040 8094
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18081 4353 125 187 58 5 0 0
OW 5 1164 154 269 214 64 0 0
VODI 0 317 135 602 697 316 2 0
ODI 0 44 38 77 451 570 52 0
CDI 0 1 10 64 176 960 448 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 40 1279 6787 8094


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