Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117906 15992 285 278 29 2 0 0
OW 2293 1899 525 728 129 25 0 0
VODI 1487 402 349 1525 699 61 0 0
ODI 0 53 54 633 2579 578 1 0
CDI 0 10 32 189 1566 3934 448 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 321 7451 18265 60
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117857 14259 197 286 58 0 0 0
OW 2238 2496 483 811 200 29 0 0
VODI 1562 499 335 1480 904 184 0 0
ODI 0 59 64 730 1523 728 59 0
CDI 0 45 19 209 1307 3875 936 0
VCDI 0 1 11 30 136 7241 19863 96
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115837 15929 303 333 61 9 0 0
OW 2101 1763 439 651 109 11 1 0
VODI 1717 344 291 1044 516 93 3 0
ODI 0 58 67 552 1017 521 5 0
CDI 0 17 29 237 1526 1963 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 297 11229 21661 1
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113567 16779 403 479 151 24 0 0
OW 1991 1483 425 805 425 24 1 0
VODI 1883 473 155 574 874 153 5 0
ODI 0 146 107 343 628 592 11 0
CDI 0 80 71 350 888 1991 562 0
VCDI 0 6 6 67 392 9245 23737 914
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113610 16827 458 560 190 22 0 0
OW 2063 1418 366 747 449 33 0 0
VODI 1768 518 170 551 854 174 6 0
ODI 0 118 104 345 614 620 8 0
CDI 0 82 66 359 837 2017 621 0
VCDI 0 4 3 56 414 9163 23681 914

Date: 2023-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112814 15564 419 548 248 24 0 0
OW 1954 1742 371 1029 455 81 0 0
VODI 1933 503 201 689 1013 281 12 0
ODI 0 184 77 347 672 497 42 0
CDI 0 91 82 343 893 1505 509 0
VCDI 0 1 3 57 224 7121 25633 2648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112813 15447 431 614 278 26 0 0
OW 1958 1848 357 1006 457 94 0 0
VODI 1930 542 199 641 1007 285 12 0
ODI 0 160 87 373 679 492 46 0
CDI 0 87 75 322 814 1600 494 0
VCDI 0 1 4 57 270 7012 25644 2648

Date: 2023-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110433 16892 437 407 121 14 0 0
OW 1880 1501 461 797 195 5 0 0
VODI 2026 195 245 1255 615 34 10 0
ODI 0 27 28 415 1219 187 60 0
CDI 0 27 27 124 1311 2311 474 0
VCDI 0 0 3 17 134 5356 26011 5556
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110417 15967 430 529 203 9 0 0
OW 1925 1940 410 1003 656 59 0 0
VODI 1997 526 219 717 1158 537 16 0
ODI 0 119 69 353 619 712 93 0
CDI 0 78 65 340 559 1308 672 30
VCDI 0 12 8 73 400 5282 25774 5526

Date: 2023-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108107 17849 465 559 48 0 0 0
OW 1830 1324 414 1069 356 4 0 0
VODI 2089 209 168 942 1005 84 0 0
ODI 0 74 42 355 1068 266 2 0
CDI 0 23 45 183 1110 1869 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 135 4545 24591 9755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108114 16476 382 480 71 2 0 0
OW 1839 2175 400 1072 443 34 0 0
VODI 2073 531 198 962 1424 464 5 0
ODI 0 159 76 291 892 942 91 0
CDI 0 137 75 238 598 1447 562 0
VCDI 0 1 3 75 294 3879 24150 9755

Date: 2023-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109434 15286 388 446 56 0 0 0
OW 1871 1715 392 971 415 29 0 0
VODI 2144 390 212 864 989 181 0 0
ODI 0 112 78 269 825 465 6 0
CDI 0 40 64 282 838 1739 332 0
VCDI 0 0 1 38 315 5145 19166 15312
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109348 13700 316 495 236 25 0 0
OW 1963 2512 320 709 427 137 0 0
VODI 2138 852 271 936 1217 623 26 0
ODI 0 272 90 220 714 1001 101 0
CDI 0 201 119 366 435 1501 562 0
VCDI 0 6 19 144 409 4272 18815 15312


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