Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23024 6294 69 27 0 0 0 0
OW 38 1044 237 207 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 177 235 874 331 17 0 0
ODI 0 4 23 481 1352 407 14 0
CDI 0 10 2 33 563 3466 649 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2374 3908 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22182 6635 153 119 1 0 0 0
OW 18 720 238 524 65 1 0 0
VODI 0 110 158 698 544 50 0 0
ODI 0 12 12 382 893 697 9 0
CDI 0 5 3 30 328 3810 867 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3343 3259 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21582 6662 235 258 16 0 0 0
OW 2 409 250 440 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 100 692 290 4 0 0
ODI 0 3 6 303 850 114 1 0
CDI 0 9 3 21 562 1497 308 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 74 4560 6512 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22077 6561 139 95 3 0 0 0
OW 5 632 206 285 35 5 0 0
VODI 0 125 154 620 164 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 17 351 761 36 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 687 743 695 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 3023 8255 7
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22076 6645 159 112 6 0 0 0
OW 6 558 203 303 37 8 0 0
VODI 0 114 141 613 200 9 0 0
ODI 0 4 13 326 769 54 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 664 828 756 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 2921 8194 7

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21822 6631 124 103 0 0 0 0
OW 10 692 230 274 63 19 0 0
VODI 0 121 181 711 199 5 0 0
ODI 0 6 11 454 731 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 52 689 1090 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 3635 7689 24
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21818 6665 156 128 9 0 0 0
OW 14 675 216 279 62 21 0 0
VODI 0 105 164 721 237 2 0 0
ODI 0 5 10 428 763 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 38 598 1246 313 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 42 3476 7619 24

Date: 2023-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21296 6553 132 169 2 0 0 0
OW 0 779 213 329 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 178 809 133 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 566 755 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 35 689 1017 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 4553 7411 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21282 5926 140 183 4 0 0 0
OW 14 1252 205 427 75 13 0 0
VODI 0 231 166 744 335 30 0 0
ODI 0 14 10 472 745 127 3 0
CDI 0 0 4 82 454 1302 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 4153 7016 0

Date: 2023-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20436 6607 197 234 23 0 0 0
OW 0 723 229 426 134 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 84 492 442 31 0 0
ODI 0 35 20 148 476 408 8 0
CDI 0 0 3 98 480 1345 254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 2402 9961 15
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20412 5893 149 166 21 0 0 0
OW 24 1246 208 452 245 11 1 0
VODI 0 291 144 467 509 225 0 0
ODI 0 27 31 239 440 672 32 0
CDI 0 1 1 74 350 1188 391 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 2090 9799 15

Date: 2023-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19942 5969 261 350 75 0 0 0
OW 0 340 210 633 333 32 0 0
VODI 0 50 44 351 620 199 3 0
ODI 0 16 9 107 438 416 32 0
CDI 0 0 3 51 338 1113 421 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 124 1618 10829 937
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19938 5419 215 308 37 0 0 0
OW 4 763 208 515 259 43 0 0
VODI 0 178 91 544 811 372 22 0
ODI 0 14 12 104 485 613 95 0
CDI 0 1 1 23 331 1114 408 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1236 10760 937


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