Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120211 14874 204 161 16 0 0 0
OW 2598 2594 564 662 124 17 0 0
VODI 1208 425 487 1947 1004 288 0 0
ODI 0 21 56 915 3586 1119 34 0
CDI 0 10 2 153 1665 11069 1113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 7064 6607 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118836 15584 270 272 26 0 0 0
OW 2425 2217 521 950 249 14 0 0
VODI 1437 451 387 1593 1162 423 6 0
ODI 0 48 44 793 2670 1497 72 0
CDI 0 5 6 94 1033 9167 3254 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 8105 7197 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118936 15261 328 371 36 0 0 0
OW 2235 1898 476 607 72 0 0 0
VODI 1648 337 461 1780 571 16 0 0
ODI 0 19 29 959 3033 341 1 0
CDI 0 10 6 75 1543 4977 377 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 264 13019 11121 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119375 15021 236 205 20 0 0 0
OW 2316 1961 471 599 81 7 0 0
VODI 1459 433 390 1538 635 41 0 0
ODI 0 44 44 734 2811 403 2 0
CDI 0 21 12 154 1640 3787 979 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 349 8853 16151 7
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119379 15264 251 215 23 0 0 0
OW 2326 1766 483 668 81 8 0 0
VODI 1445 382 367 1569 836 46 0 0
ODI 0 47 40 646 2778 438 2 0
CDI 0 19 10 120 1486 3999 1050 0
VCDI 0 2 2 43 332 8600 16080 7

Date: 2023-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118311 15053 225 240 17 0 0 0
OW 2274 2011 524 782 161 35 0 0
VODI 1518 359 352 1612 804 79 7 0
ODI 0 42 44 707 2004 803 16 0
CDI 0 0 15 214 1504 3947 585 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 175 7785 18552 52
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118313 15268 291 269 24 1 0 0
OW 2293 1868 505 884 182 34 0 0
VODI 1497 299 319 1561 991 118 6 0
ODI 0 30 36 652 2018 896 11 0
CDI 0 0 9 178 1236 4089 702 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 214 7511 18441 52

Date: 2023-10-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115623 16521 277 360 83 8 0 0
OW 2127 1893 428 545 58 22 0 0
VODI 1684 275 386 1448 303 31 2 0
ODI 0 24 35 852 1298 100 4 0
CDI 0 3 14 138 1878 2433 90 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 129 11330 20084 324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115624 15559 328 402 96 17 0 0
OW 2215 2482 396 910 285 100 9 0
VODI 1595 536 315 1137 1018 424 12 0
ODI 0 81 67 664 1261 723 100 0
CDI 0 54 28 205 960 3624 925 0
VCDI 0 4 6 25 129 9036 19134 324

Date: 2023-10-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115487 15818 328 357 68 14 0 0
OW 2081 1716 388 686 201 14 1 0
VODI 1744 456 229 757 693 58 5 0
ODI 0 114 106 408 805 502 13 0
CDI 0 60 43 325 1171 2133 309 0
VCDI 0 10 10 36 433 10252 22917 62
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115478 14627 302 360 90 24 2 0
OW 2158 2492 373 730 496 52 12 0
VODI 1676 761 260 806 953 497 8 0
ODI 0 195 115 358 847 1266 119 0
CDI 0 94 49 294 794 2612 752 0
VCDI 0 5 5 21 191 8522 22352 62

Date: 2023-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114431 15045 395 497 143 45 0 0
OW 1967 1444 392 1061 452 72 1 0
VODI 1909 524 166 578 868 275 7 0
ODI 0 168 105 334 625 527 38 0
CDI 0 82 80 368 903 1776 452 0
VCDI 0 3 3 78 412 7587 25120 1877
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114450 14085 365 501 114 71 0 0
OW 2118 2159 386 864 449 98 15 0
VODI 1739 663 217 950 1260 556 58 0
ODI 0 260 89 282 736 1029 354 0
CDI 0 99 84 294 749 2369 930 0
VCDI 0 0 0 25 95 6159 24261 1877


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