Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21979 6978 75 45 5 0 0 0
OW 31 1376 255 146 52 10 0 0
VODI 0 263 223 774 325 77 3 0
ODI 0 12 39 412 1638 1139 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 152 582 3509 1207 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 2643 1898 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23018 6003 48 43 0 0 0 0
OW 23 1370 219 210 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 250 266 907 240 59 3 0
ODI 0 15 44 574 1242 1352 11 0
CDI 0 0 3 280 530 2870 852 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 33 2299 3090 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22443 7062 165 87 0 0 0 0
OW 23 931 224 193 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 201 276 900 179 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 13 638 1513 214 5 0
CDI 0 6 1 18 778 3257 201 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 1 3686 2817 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22485 6903 131 51 0 0 0 0
OW 40 952 222 241 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 168 259 782 317 95 0 0
ODI 0 3 13 422 1491 504 10 0
CDI 0 6 3 13 622 3326 721 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 3064 2990 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22487 7034 143 47 0 0 0 0
OW 38 825 214 253 31 1 0 0
VODI 0 165 257 808 391 106 0 0
ODI 0 2 11 380 1409 540 22 0
CDI 0 6 3 21 631 3392 869 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2950 2830 0

Date: 2023-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22963 6222 59 31 0 0 0 0
OW 29 984 221 295 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 180 187 820 427 29 2 0
ODI 0 11 32 444 1127 475 18 0
CDI 0 6 1 31 549 3397 868 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2990 3446 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22965 6305 86 36 0 0 0 0
OW 27 895 190 288 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 184 194 835 485 44 3 0
ODI 0 12 28 404 1049 494 28 0
CDI 0 7 2 58 570 3581 891 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2772 3412 0

Date: 2023-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21487 6993 215 212 8 0 0 0
OW 3 501 240 271 52 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 112 705 338 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 200 996 51 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 16 680 1754 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 5544 5346 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21482 6810 222 263 63 0 0 0
OW 8 591 204 433 380 7 0 0
VODI 0 145 125 456 670 103 0 0
ODI 0 6 17 226 740 662 28 0
CDI 0 7 2 26 230 2454 1294 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4123 4089 0

Date: 2023-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21825 6656 132 148 22 0 0 0
OW 2 651 229 249 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 125 643 224 22 0 0
ODI 0 6 7 285 693 217 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 43 638 857 827 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 130 3544 7569 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21827 6387 120 193 22 0 0 0
OW 0 812 213 468 123 2 0 0
VODI 0 175 144 523 530 28 1 0
ODI 0 13 16 173 678 339 37 0
CDI 0 1 1 12 388 1166 805 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 9 3105 7553 0

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21347 7212 135 118 10 0 0 0
OW 7 673 204 253 66 14 0 0
VODI 0 114 159 670 177 14 0 0
ODI 0 9 14 336 805 42 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 56 687 1078 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 66 2805 8586 60
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21341 6930 161 229 38 0 0 0
OW 13 788 158 348 157 4 0 0
VODI 0 246 141 401 453 69 0 0
ODI 0 44 51 305 385 200 32 0
CDI 0 0 2 121 441 703 315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 337 2977 8387 60


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