Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119798 15197 156 164 22 0 0 0
OW 2946 3465 596 443 99 10 0 0
VODI 740 638 644 2964 1334 96 3 0
ODI 0 20 52 1101 8183 2449 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 157 1862 9199 1216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 5192 2038 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120513 14165 130 160 0 0 0 0
OW 2807 3528 599 584 72 0 0 0
VODI 940 647 720 2887 1218 111 3 0
ODI 0 28 71 1309 5761 3484 32 0
CDI 0 0 3 301 1441 9674 979 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 33 5031 3576 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120072 15428 282 212 3 0 0 0
OW 2640 2663 639 480 36 0 0 0
VODI 1137 375 582 2643 784 31 0 0
ODI 0 5 27 1064 4639 1016 9 0
CDI 0 6 1 56 2761 10459 271 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 14 8495 3978 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119716 15459 258 156 2 0 0 0
OW 2624 2728 582 580 53 0 0 0
VODI 1176 415 538 2086 1057 143 0 0
ODI 0 10 49 836 3969 1233 13 0
CDI 0 6 3 100 2382 11400 1075 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 7937 4208 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119774 15681 277 160 2 0 0 0
OW 2679 2523 572 588 59 1 0 0
VODI 1063 396 532 2115 1233 160 0 0
ODI 0 12 46 792 3849 1468 24 0
CDI 0 6 3 103 2293 10538 1197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 8546 4075 0

Date: 2023-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120263 14643 196 140 2 0 0 0
OW 2479 2462 594 778 103 30 3 0
VODI 1386 475 404 1787 1126 309 27 0
ODI 0 45 70 838 3103 1166 131 0
CDI 0 6 2 136 1396 10021 1818 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 7413 7444 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120265 14827 228 167 5 0 0 0
OW 2474 2294 557 739 102 13 1 0
VODI 1389 463 412 1805 1265 340 26 0
ODI 0 40 67 811 2880 1318 234 0
CDI 0 7 2 157 1473 9521 1672 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 7747 7490 0

Date: 2023-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118647 15792 334 376 37 0 0 0
OW 2256 1949 482 460 70 1 0 0
VODI 1623 320 416 1795 656 12 0 0
ODI 0 8 10 741 3307 283 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 27 1439 5297 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 12911 11438 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118662 15277 343 441 108 1 0 0
OW 2364 2036 491 846 477 14 0 0
VODI 1500 671 334 1319 1381 374 0 0
ODI 0 80 68 688 2528 1497 39 0
CDI 0 9 8 105 998 6956 2357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 9662 9145 0

Date: 2023-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119369 14959 230 255 45 0 0 0
OW 2290 2103 494 464 65 0 0 0
VODI 1532 387 415 1704 594 35 0 0
ODI 0 36 33 848 2890 544 0 0
CDI 0 8 8 132 1565 4404 959 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 371 11082 12967 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119447 14391 234 345 60 0 0 0
OW 2416 2312 481 884 219 12 0 0
VODI 1328 742 410 1412 1437 81 1 0
ODI 0 47 52 696 2711 1257 41 0
CDI 0 1 3 86 1081 6703 1750 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 22 8012 12134 0

Date: 2023-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117906 15992 285 278 29 2 0 0
OW 2293 1899 525 728 129 25 0 0
VODI 1487 402 349 1525 699 61 0 0
ODI 0 53 54 633 2579 578 1 0
CDI 0 10 32 189 1566 3934 448 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 321 7451 18265 60
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117912 15465 348 437 89 7 0 0
OW 2374 2030 387 831 381 51 0 0
VODI 1400 784 413 1152 1311 380 0 0
ODI 0 77 89 745 1623 1336 86 0
CDI 0 0 8 180 1538 4641 3245 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 381 5636 15383 60


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