Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117070 15783 175 90 6 0 0 0
OW 2852 3881 636 527 3 0 0 0
VODI 1084 938 733 3142 846 14 0 0
ODI 0 80 161 2342 6936 2153 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 312 3124 13336 712 0
VCDI 0 2 0 0 27 3676 164 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118993 13782 164 105 0 0 0 0
OW 2825 4098 524 545 7 0 0 0
VODI 1113 1102 769 2988 979 30 0 0
ODI 0 122 143 1930 8217 1026 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 265 3342 10982 309 0
VCDI 0 0 1 1 95 5520 827 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118533 16301 221 154 6 0 0 0
OW 2879 3387 644 580 28 0 0 0
VODI 830 470 678 3432 1239 60 0 0
ODI 0 8 18 1295 8947 1482 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 17 1532 11609 632 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 18 5014 791 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119950 15000 175 199 34 0 0 0
OW 2955 3479 533 479 102 11 0 0
VODI 718 609 657 2983 1395 100 1 0
ODI 0 19 43 1175 8529 2262 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 159 1820 8970 1591 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 13 5191 1616 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119952 15079 212 214 37 0 0 0
OW 2953 3399 514 493 119 9 0 0
VODI 718 616 642 2981 1385 111 0 0
ODI 0 13 40 1163 8432 2370 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 144 1885 8799 1574 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 35 5245 1621 0

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120974 14037 111 131 0 0 0 0
OW 2909 3593 532 470 82 5 0 0
VODI 778 694 701 2828 1268 101 3 0
ODI 0 23 69 1317 7114 2880 42 0
CDI 0 0 2 247 1565 9031 1366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 4692 3235 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120985 14119 142 145 0 0 0 0
OW 2911 3490 527 531 106 7 0 0
VODI 765 723 675 2851 1218 109 3 0
ODI 0 15 69 1227 7085 3145 80 0
CDI 0 0 2 239 1605 8675 1438 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 4773 3125 0

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120689 15071 184 178 12 0 0 0
OW 2662 2710 666 389 26 0 0 0
VODI 1106 304 592 2902 687 13 0 0
ODI 0 2 10 1032 5478 501 11 0
CDI 0 3 1 25 2501 11354 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 7 7024 4565 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120766 13752 177 196 12 0 0 0
OW 2841 3516 590 611 151 1 0 0
VODI 850 799 629 2629 1338 149 6 0
ODI 0 21 55 846 5504 3599 85 0
CDI 0 2 2 243 1696 9598 1084 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 10 5545 3505 0

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119918 15395 275 200 0 0 0 0
OW 2639 2719 652 522 24 0 0 0
VODI 1150 376 488 2514 899 27 0 0
ODI 0 17 44 938 4578 912 3 0
CDI 0 3 3 102 3014 10850 531 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 90 8254 3673 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119986 13984 233 176 0 0 0 0
OW 2808 3537 568 734 112 1 0 0
VODI 913 941 584 2344 1514 169 3 0
ODI 0 46 74 832 4990 3049 77 0
CDI 0 2 3 190 1988 10272 1418 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 6552 2709 0

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120211 14874 204 161 16 0 0 0
OW 2598 2594 564 662 124 17 0 0
VODI 1208 425 487 1947 1004 288 0 0
ODI 0 21 56 915 3586 1119 34 0
CDI 0 10 2 153 1665 11069 1113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 7064 6607 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120275 13540 182 180 22 0 0 0
OW 2717 3250 569 785 263 20 0 0
VODI 1025 1025 462 1703 1552 424 10 0
ODI 0 87 85 897 2905 2135 80 0
CDI 0 22 15 273 1661 12260 2868 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 4718 4796 0


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