Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104701 8279 16787 97 0 0 0 0
OW 2644 2397 3804 389 7 0 0 0
VODI 1162 500 3440 2409 869 7 0 0
ODI 0 31 1989 1811 6534 1444 0 0
CDI 0 0 2878 2211 4276 6948 190 0
VCDI 0 0 3666 687 71 471 111 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112581 17267 180 101 6 0 0 0
OW 2751 5349 688 488 15 0 0 0
VODI 994 1255 1124 3848 1036 21 0 0
ODI 0 65 103 2050 7928 1683 15 0
CDI 0 3 0 65 4857 11298 737 0
VCDI 0 3 0 0 4 3095 1200 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115824 17249 173 70 0 0 0 0
OW 2785 3829 937 509 16 0 0 0
VODI 947 422 741 3216 924 23 0 0
ODI 0 21 37 1545 8969 1132 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 100 3131 14125 580 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2578 922 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116355 16489 223 203 7 0 0 0
OW 2733 3907 715 481 24 0 0 0
VODI 1071 760 726 3092 910 20 0 0
ODI 0 68 141 1836 7399 2513 8 0
CDI 0 1 5 206 3914 12940 450 0
VCDI 0 2 0 0 111 3120 380 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116369 15055 201 141 8 0 0 0
OW 2947 4462 568 513 57 3 0 0
VODI 843 1497 856 3195 1119 14 0 0
ODI 0 198 143 1609 6787 2574 37 0
CDI 0 12 42 357 4369 13176 470 0
VCDI 0 3 0 3 25 2826 331 0

Date: 2023-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119284 13624 114 52 0 0 0 0
OW 2806 4078 573 458 12 0 0 0
VODI 1106 1057 738 2996 962 16 0 0
ODI 0 101 181 2312 7426 1486 0 0
CDI 0 3 4 292 3449 11929 531 0
VCDI 0 0 1 1 51 4517 650 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119055 12413 115 61 3 0 0 0
OW 3161 4479 493 478 15 0 0 0
VODI 980 1715 800 3209 1013 23 0 0
ODI 0 218 159 2076 6802 2024 11 0
CDI 0 38 43 286 4017 11810 559 0
VCDI 0 0 1 1 50 4091 611 0

Date: 2023-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119082 15671 195 84 0 0 0 0
OW 2880 3585 686 460 5 0 0 0
VODI 831 384 654 3914 880 14 0 0
ODI 0 4 13 1270 9751 751 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 14 1490 12665 105 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 1 4444 971 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118659 12940 149 69 0 0 0 0
OW 3253 4515 446 543 35 0 0 0
VODI 881 1824 723 2857 1251 166 4 0
ODI 0 338 187 1965 6839 1874 79 0
CDI 0 27 44 308 3918 9761 347 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 84 6073 646 0

Date: 2023-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119427 15529 182 163 26 0 0 0
OW 2961 3441 618 499 38 0 0 0
VODI 713 570 619 3288 1263 98 0 0
ODI 0 6 27 1130 8844 1865 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 1524 10037 1458 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 20 5245 1145 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119042 12489 161 173 15 0 0 0
OW 3179 4587 408 498 118 33 0 0
VODI 880 2099 631 2770 1096 157 3 0
ODI 0 344 218 1499 6779 2307 207 0
CDI 0 27 28 187 3666 8414 1960 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 41 6334 455 0

Date: 2023-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119798 15197 156 164 22 0 0 0
OW 2946 3465 596 443 99 10 0 0
VODI 740 638 644 2964 1334 96 3 0
ODI 0 20 52 1101 8183 2449 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 157 1862 9199 1216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 5192 2038 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119429 12250 195 167 14 0 0 0
OW 3146 4345 403 600 194 52 3 0
VODI 909 2312 595 2282 1295 98 2 0
ODI 0 335 211 1382 5794 2893 134 0
CDI 0 78 44 398 4138 7288 2210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 6615 927 0


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