Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2024-01-18

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date:

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 67 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 13 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 8 19 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 5 15 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 19 22 5 0 11
VCDI 0 0 0 11 44 202 3182 33242
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 23 11 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 10 11 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 7 19 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 17 12 5 1 5
VCDI 0 1 0 20 54 202 3181 33248

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 372 2755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 372 2755

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 82 1638 8262
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 82 1638 8262

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 66 1227 4360
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 66 1226 4360

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 904 6325
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 903 6325

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 1243 4035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 1241 4033

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 27 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 2 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 4 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 4 11 9 19 5 29 1
VCDI 0 0 4 38 82 288 3779 1999
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 1 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 6 3 0 12 8 27 0
VCDI 0 12 19 49 90 285 3781 2000

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2798 3831 226 288 103 25 5 0
OW 0 26 40 142 45 18 4 0
VODI 0 13 4 163 81 41 9 0
ODI 0 5 3 67 70 53 15 0
CDI 0 0 4 20 118 112 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 75 530 2346 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2798 3767 198 266 142 40 11 0
OW 0 67 46 98 48 37 14 0
VODI 0 25 22 165 51 60 16 0
ODI 0 7 3 120 74 62 32 0
CDI 0 8 4 25 88 120 79 0
VCDI 0 1 4 18 89 460 2265 1

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4462 3249 51 81 27 0 0 0
OW 0 220 16 22 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 97 26 37 11 4 0 0
ODI 0 44 36 47 11 5 0 0
CDI 0 37 27 80 26 7 0 0
VCDI 0 12 22 159 364 1077 1343 77
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4462 2877 44 82 35 0 0 0
OW 0 193 6 13 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 164 16 17 11 5 0 0
ODI 0 96 15 22 4 11 0 0
CDI 0 99 18 38 11 3 0 0
VCDI 0 230 79 254 379 1074 1343 77

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7183 3394 202 373 126 105 0 0
OW 0 9 12 125 51 15 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 63 92 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 87 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 64 288 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 423 275 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7183 3396 211 436 190 130 0 0
OW 0 7 5 70 38 45 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 54 46 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 60 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 61 106 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 521 274 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 314 59 56 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 10 65 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 55 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 86 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 63 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 592 2524 1840
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 302 55 55 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 15 58 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 1 52 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 50 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 68 21 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 636 2525 1840

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 705 4718 3048
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 13 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 706 4716 3044

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13019 4027 152 148 0 0 0 0
OW 0 89 72 245 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 7 241 134 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 212 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 221 290 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 199 698 276 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13019 4048 180 193 11 0 0 0
OW 0 74 42 243 64 1 0 0
VODI 0 1 9 194 149 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 102 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 121 184 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 349 790 283 0


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