Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 18 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 277 5221 31292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 9 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 5 2 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 53 279 5213 31292

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 29 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 171 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 425 1228 1223
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 12 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 95 1 36
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 457 1228 1187

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 570 48 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 323 2855 6164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 231 6 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 317 63 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 295 2834 6167

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1869 183 168 3 0 0 0
OW 3 25 11 180 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 79 176 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 11 124 162 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 2 383 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 51 1728 335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1813 154 211 45 9 0 0
OW 3 81 40 131 105 67 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 82 157 239 18 0
ODI 0 0 1 13 32 134 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 12 93 175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 62 1571 335

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 18 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 1480 5721
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 40 78
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 1456 5650

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 1242 4070
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 1242 4067

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 895 191 239 67 0 0 0
OW 0 2 5 176 29 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 131 41 4 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 21 121 22 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 0 76 202 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 348 2099 1624
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 869 144 194 85 6 0 0
OW 0 27 48 111 13 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 197 12 15 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 57 87 24 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 8 98 94 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 439 2099 1624

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6349 3033 133 203 34 0 0 0
OW 0 9 13 128 35 7 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 39 144 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 88 62 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 143 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 544 274 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6349 2969 121 205 49 11 2 0
OW 0 52 22 94 43 11 4 0
VODI 0 22 4 68 103 30 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 80 45 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 49 101 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 578 273 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4936 2694 129 128 27 0 0 0
OW 0 9 30 109 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 97 84 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 112 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 139 212 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 369 2059 409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4936 2681 106 116 36 0 0 0
OW 0 22 41 108 27 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 14 91 82 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 50 92 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 113 177 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 73 366 2026 409

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9658 2287 106 240 253 146 0 0
OW 0 6 13 27 19 14 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 39 38 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 36 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 55 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9658 2289 106 250 297 180 0 0
OW 0 4 12 29 7 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 24 14 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 19 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 23 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 304 1678 102 123 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 39 289 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 371 416 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 629 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 172 318 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 870 334 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 304 1626 110 270 10 0 0 0
OW 0 78 21 229 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 13 229 414 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 254 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 287 165 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 198 1039 332 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5995 1934 37 42 0 0 0 0
OW 17 63 2 51 0 0 0 0
VODI 3 37 5 45 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 7 193 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 56 53 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5908 1804 25 21 0 0 0 0
OW 88 111 8 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 18 94 8 51 5 0 0 0
ODI 1 26 6 38 63 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 200 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 16 30 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19889 300 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19889 241 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 67 1 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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