Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 730 1645 55 110 26 0 0 0
OW 14 133 86 113 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 42 152 102 3 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 92 92 59 2 3
CDI 0 7 1 27 139 261 111 50
VCDI 0 1 0 28 115 1302 11559 14904
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 298 1886 60 114 32 0 0 0
OW 0 110 62 82 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 43 194 158 1 0 0
ODI 0 9 6 96 102 57 0 1
CDI 0 8 1 25 105 291 67 129
VCDI 0 1 2 25 102 1253 12018 14637
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81 2148 112 170 0 0 0 0
OW 0 74 45 114 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 31 180 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 92 140 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 93 191 42 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 1268 10946 16080
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1938 64 102 48 0 0 0
OW 0 73 41 63 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 22 103 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 66 172 36 20 3
CDI 0 0 0 12 174 251 116 37
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1142 8713 18735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1883 69 106 46 0 0 0
OW 0 132 34 49 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 26 130 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 60 216 53 24 2
CDI 0 0 0 1 122 215 114 32
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1161 8711 18741

Date: 2023-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1654 73 104 44 0 0 0
OW 0 133 60 47 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 26 123 40 17 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 46 76 48 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 113 141 114 8
VCDI 0 0 0 3 95 817 9591 18650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1612 66 110 46 0 0 0
OW 0 161 61 31 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 32 110 39 14 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 71 85 34 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 128 179 103 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 796 9602 18650

Date: 2023-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1221 219 307 73 0 0 0
OW 0 2 5 183 35 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 132 60 5 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 21 130 37 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 0 76 230 6 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 463 5367 23465
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1195 172 261 87 6 0 0
OW 0 27 48 119 28 4 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 198 25 16 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 57 97 32 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 8 98 115 23 81
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 568 5350 23391

Date: 2023-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1352 137 252 133 0 0 0
OW 0 43 58 153 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 17 118 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 134 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 134 65 21 10
VCDI 0 0 0 9 140 471 4045 24587
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1261 121 225 135 0 0 0
OW 0 70 22 106 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 38 106 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 19 74 76 0 4 0
CDI 0 1 12 55 157 36 30 12
VCDI 0 0 0 71 189 504 4032 24585

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1446 153 127 14 0 0 0
OW 0 135 73 152 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 61 160 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 26 84 50 2 4 0
CDI 0 0 8 86 107 39 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 97 264 642 5569 22654
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 1376 125 125 16 0 0 0
OW 0 119 69 88 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 50 171 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 31 38 83 51 0 0 0
CDI 0 23 26 88 83 82 27 17
VCDI 0 4 13 151 277 601 5584 22637


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