Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9014 2638 279 533 84 42 0 0
OW 113 322 174 730 212 73 0 0
VODI 31 122 90 531 585 130 0 0
ODI 5 45 11 276 393 334 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 344 272 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 235 2705 5437 20038
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9082 2262 95 229 38 0 0 0
OW 128 392 84 525 469 41 0 0
VODI 26 228 81 365 741 127 0 0
ODI 1 62 28 233 521 335 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 96 370 502 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 240 2670 5558 20313
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8721 3079 224 235 19 0 0 0
OW 74 78 73 471 175 0 0 0
VODI 20 18 29 355 655 33 0 0
ODI 7 0 0 147 1085 207 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 623 762 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 260 4492 6679 17310
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7917 3066 204 400 39 0 0 0
OW 55 133 35 271 191 0 0 0
VODI 12 30 31 194 749 71 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 93 749 402 29 0
CDI 0 1 0 52 590 944 16 13
VCDI 0 0 0 11 211 3269 6436 19640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7938 3099 196 393 28 0 0 0
OW 35 105 47 309 248 5 0 0
VODI 11 26 26 152 810 119 13 0
ODI 0 7 6 90 724 464 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 497 928 8 11
VCDI 0 0 0 14 222 3170 6436 19642

Date: 2023-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7260 3286 179 261 37 0 0 0
OW 74 153 36 175 299 74 0 0
VODI 14 77 17 202 628 194 0 0
ODI 0 11 2 74 513 323 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 447 842 232 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 293 2448 6394 21249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7282 3301 168 256 97 8 0 0
OW 53 147 47 164 275 62 0 0
VODI 13 70 18 194 688 238 1 0
ODI 0 9 1 91 471 362 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 379 870 183 1
VCDI 0 0 0 23 307 2341 6429 21248

Date: 2023-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6676 3822 224 210 36 0 0 0
OW 20 98 13 231 47 0 0 0
VODI 3 45 6 193 381 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 23 797 225 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 222 1497 161 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 1684 6949 22207
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6589 3634 182 232 78 9 0 0
OW 91 202 49 153 139 73 0 0
VODI 18 104 9 169 410 321 18 0
ODI 1 26 7 81 313 414 71 2
CDI 0 0 0 23 394 698 267 45
VCDI 0 0 0 6 211 1899 6754 22174

Date: 2023-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5059 5191 367 211 33 0 0 0
OW 27 182 84 194 3 0 0 0
VODI 9 56 52 295 93 1 0 0
ODI 1 6 0 132 406 173 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 350 784 59 7
VCDI 0 0 0 17 246 2979 7125 21696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5058 4992 328 232 54 1 0 0
OW 21 279 101 202 29 22 0 0
VODI 15 125 68 271 220 230 1 0
ODI 2 39 6 120 255 437 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 243 870 170 5
VCDI 0 0 0 27 330 2377 7004 21698

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5178 4833 175 222 39 8 0 0
OW 29 267 92 218 26 3 0 0
VODI 11 71 43 275 98 19 0 0
ODI 0 9 12 123 288 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 272 491 10 1
VCDI 0 0 0 8 201 3532 8233 20933
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5195 4561 168 226 66 14 0 0
OW 19 382 75 219 15 17 0 0
VODI 4 191 50 231 200 184 0 0
ODI 0 39 27 160 265 423 12 0
CDI 0 7 2 53 169 679 60 8
VCDI 0 0 0 3 209 2836 8171 20926


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