Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-11-02

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-06

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 22 11 22 39 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 23 22 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 24 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 51 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 48 324 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 608 9330 26241
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 20 9 13 47 5 0 0
OW 0 2 2 26 22 16 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 30 28 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 51 86 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 22 230 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 608 9302 26241

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 33 219 10 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 8 27 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 35 6 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 68 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 408 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 772 662 639
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 33 108 7 35 0 2 0 0
OW 0 128 9 26 0 24 0 0
VODI 0 20 4 25 0 117 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 36 41 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 71 138 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 926 666 639

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 639 153 103 4 0 0 0
OW 0 6 56 209 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 189 178 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 490 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 76 940 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 576 3048 3206
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 599 158 297 59 8 2 0
OW 0 46 49 137 169 113 17 0
VODI 0 0 2 67 176 335 26 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 299 248 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 71 296 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 547 2930 3206

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 943 2051 181 107 0 0 0 0
OW 25 5 34 247 19 0 0 0
VODI 1 5 1 133 83 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 143 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 335 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 471 678 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 942 1960 148 124 0 40 0 0
OW 26 62 30 263 43 100 0 0
VODI 1 30 32 59 117 70 2 0
ODI 0 9 6 39 52 54 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 49 104 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 59 530 675 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 47 25 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 7 35 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 69 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 84 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 150 466 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 2684 3512 74
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 49 17 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 9 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 6 53 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 35 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 159 98 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 69 3051 3507 74

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 4 40
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 77 1951 3238
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 4 54
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 76 1951 3223

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 329 2029 99 62 7 0 0 0
OW 0 17 42 110 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 145 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 165 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 329 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 411 2421 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 329 1817 44 47 6 0 0 0
OW 0 202 57 82 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 39 110 57 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 72 67 79 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 109 174 95 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 471 2362 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7815 2791 118 169 67 0 0 0
OW 1 12 2 49 66 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 18 52 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 54 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7800 2802 120 216 137 5 0 0
OW 16 1 1 18 34 17 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 46 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 26 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5897 2416 84 52 2 11 0 0
OW 0 40 40 81 7 11 0 0
VODI 0 3 27 94 45 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 65 72 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 104 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 105 762 1539 84
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5897 2358 85 86 13 36 0 0
OW 0 57 22 57 29 15 0 0
VODI 0 34 25 68 40 23 0 0
ODI 0 9 9 48 48 13 1 0
CDI 0 1 14 44 80 36 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 44 125 757 1527 84

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10706 1763 86 179 171 33 0 0
OW 0 8 1 6 23 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10706 1771 87 187 198 37 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1874 1730 218 488 115 32 0 0
OW 0 0 16 263 71 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 105 190 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 125 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 38 104 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 86 112 78 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1873 1726 205 615 273 63 0 0
OW 1 4 29 145 55 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 57 52 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 49 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 68 30 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 128 199 78 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7703 667 11 20 3 0 0 0
OW 23 46 11 39 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 30 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7703 539 2 24 8 0 0 0
OW 23 86 3 17 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 17 39 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 10 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 132 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 142 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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