Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105056 13669 897 1881 339 71 4 0
OW 9 270 284 1546 903 175 16 0
VODI 0 22 56 673 1520 952 85 0
ODI 0 0 1 147 828 1897 332 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 617 4482 858 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 399 7691 17405 23864
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104024 13087 724 1771 591 106 32 0
OW 23 402 176 1186 1079 267 29 0
VODI 0 7 36 479 1527 1253 107 0
ODI 0 0 2 148 579 1799 327 9
CDI 0 0 0 61 413 3014 1396 30
VCDI 0 0 0 23 235 6423 16483 29200
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101201 13625 1165 1835 678 182 8 0
OW 21 122 95 775 640 71 5 0
VODI 0 24 28 605 1371 283 14 0
ODI 0 0 3 244 1299 907 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 1141 3653 729 28
VCDI 0 0 0 16 234 5019 19714 31255
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101269 12976 767 1280 819 206 25 0
OW 30 208 194 892 511 180 21 0
VODI 0 49 61 577 917 403 38 0
ODI 0 4 6 260 891 863 98 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 944 1780 715 8
VCDI 0 0 0 8 456 5348 18014 36158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101264 12718 745 1397 1009 292 33 0
OW 35 456 203 748 384 167 21 0
VODI 0 55 72 606 883 344 37 0
ODI 0 8 8 249 830 761 102 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 926 1539 527 5
VCDI 0 0 0 15 506 5677 18191 36161

Date: 2023-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98408 14281 804 1363 560 267 3 0
OW 42 434 200 656 608 438 32 0
VODI 0 102 100 667 738 380 42 0
ODI 0 3 19 332 806 610 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 112 1033 1211 434 9
VCDI 0 0 0 23 660 6594 21576 33445
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98399 14238 809 1480 760 446 21 0
OW 49 455 179 525 516 367 28 0
VODI 2 121 115 715 666 324 40 0
ODI 0 6 19 294 823 566 68 0
CDI 0 0 1 116 868 1066 398 3
VCDI 0 0 0 23 772 6731 21588 33451

Date: 2023-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97190 14506 1000 1250 408 76 0 0
OW 77 187 218 1089 249 45 0 0
VODI 1 14 33 847 639 107 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 194 1264 367 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 571 3023 119 40
VCDI 0 0 0 26 277 6473 23219 33482
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97185 13891 886 1652 741 196 2 0
OW 82 594 211 792 371 309 17 0
VODI 1 203 126 510 523 691 28 0
ODI 0 18 18 303 671 582 55 1
CDI 0 1 14 125 633 1145 238 54
VCDI 0 0 0 77 469 7168 22998 33467

Date: 2023-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96444 13610 764 1284 534 172 0 0
OW 96 464 279 1005 387 120 0 0
VODI 2 151 100 743 792 200 0 0
ODI 0 11 13 285 746 251 15 0
CDI 0 5 0 134 629 1043 132 19
VCDI 0 0 0 11 383 6507 22190 37527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96404 13083 708 1461 782 361 0 0
OW 135 690 247 916 601 127 14 0
VODI 3 334 128 529 658 471 134 0
ODI 0 95 53 281 440 588 247 0
CDI 0 36 14 172 424 864 391 26
VCDI 0 3 6 103 566 5882 21551 37520

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96317 12001 717 1206 420 185 0 0
OW 192 636 351 1077 351 153 1 0
VODI 31 175 137 874 879 246 5 0
ODI 5 55 15 413 589 521 9 3
CDI 0 7 1 112 597 760 151 50
VCDI 0 1 0 32 434 5021 23091 39227
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96374 11666 673 1355 528 343 4 0
OW 149 760 211 771 615 241 6 0
VODI 16 323 274 888 810 388 46 0
ODI 6 86 53 381 395 556 192 1
CDI 0 29 8 222 457 865 484 37
VCDI 0 11 2 97 465 4493 22525 39242


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