Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-30

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 158 58 90 4 0 0 0
OW 0 3 19 93 42 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 189 129 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 156 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 171 445 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 121 858 10303 23859
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 144 47 73 45 4 0 0
OW 0 17 15 84 65 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 133 115 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 104 69 136 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 112 234 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 217 955 10253 23859

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 360 275 21 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 24 30 50 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 67 42 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 216 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 394 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 139 1122 251
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 360 149 18 40 1 0 0 0
OW 0 92 8 27 85 12 0 0
VODI 0 58 25 55 147 98 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 24 90 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 191 110 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 215 1048 251

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 322 2159 189 242 119 17 0 0
OW 0 15 37 280 50 20 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 161 216 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 311 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 600 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1243 3326 491
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 322 2148 219 464 206 47 0 0
OW 0 26 8 180 128 51 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 40 304 112 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 89 232 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 291 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1271 3269 491

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1597 1891 163 213 51 0 0 0
OW 5 0 5 197 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 150 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 124 121 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 294 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 156 566 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1598 1890 159 337 116 0 0 0
OW 4 1 9 90 125 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 131 134 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 185 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 90 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 151 494 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 25 7 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 61 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 159 130 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 531 125 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 181 2539 245 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 856 1971 383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 23 7 117 63 1 0 0
OW 0 3 1 96 184 39 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 275 272 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 117 606 198 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 164 654 594 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 1952 1398 373

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 32
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 895 4377
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 49 319
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 851 4083

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 543 1828 80 115 19 0 0 0
OW 0 12 14 142 80 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 167 310 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 331 223 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 1709 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 276 364 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 543 1668 42 190 149 0 0 0
OW 0 163 49 210 324 30 0 0
VODI 0 9 3 64 279 818 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 441 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 560 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 377 376 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8704 2240 86 167 27 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 23 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8704 2240 86 186 49 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5886 2491 92 115 53 49 4 0
OW 0 5 44 98 21 16 8 0
VODI 0 0 3 113 74 13 23 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 146 32 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 122 376 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 280 1492 34
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5886 2477 81 147 69 75 34 0
OW 0 19 38 61 32 9 21 0
VODI 0 0 20 80 69 53 55 0
ODI 0 0 0 68 87 58 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 152 184 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 387 1326 34

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11167 1538 58 125 95 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11167 1538 58 125 95 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3053 1459 87 328 153 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 63 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 147 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 164 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 15 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 64 76 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3053 1395 87 361 245 0 0 0
OW 0 64 0 32 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 92 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 62 13 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 66 73 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7888 634 14 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7888 632 13 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 142 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20058 139 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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