Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2023-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3265 3068 164 285 279 0 0 0
OW 65 916 277 1104 1089 163 0 0
VODI 2 400 203 873 1289 521 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 87 510 576 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 246 598 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 170 1733 6574 7579
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2810 2955 115 158 108 0 0 0
OW 50 836 279 957 884 95 0 0
VODI 0 352 198 965 1712 558 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 280 974 511 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 345 813 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 260 2132 6415 7242
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2416 3219 240 374 43 0 0 0
OW 0 333 169 441 239 6 0 0
VODI 0 21 15 544 1102 88 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 32 1773 1202 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 514 2780 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 2227 7590 6608
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1795 2094 272 497 66 0 0 0
OW 0 161 122 770 468 75 0 0
VODI 0 7 11 266 793 447 55 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 836 1305 187 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 326 3233 532 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 255 1817 6478 9195
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1795 2049 260 475 60 2 0 0
OW 0 207 133 762 419 123 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 293 824 308 26 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 771 1272 185 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 354 3066 362 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 316 2106 6679 9195

Date: 2023-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1537 1437 166 513 133 2 0 0
OW 0 55 85 518 669 50 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 159 855 759 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 228 1111 240 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 2541 1015 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 2035 6294 11570
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1537 1328 123 454 122 7 0 0
OW 0 164 128 568 536 98 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 168 1012 638 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 204 1076 194 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 58 2300 923 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2379 6441 11582

Date: 2023-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 636 2327 97 134 20 0 0 0
OW 0 12 14 186 129 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 305 475 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 722 369 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 182 4214 310 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 993 5370 15487
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 636 2167 59 300 238 1 0 0
OW 0 163 49 295 539 69 0 0
VODI 0 9 3 70 535 1107 27 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 95 1081 209 8
CDI 0 0 0 0 91 1323 704 331
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 2019 4741 15183

Date: 2023-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1688 1395 63 75 2 0 0 0
OW 0 49 57 118 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 107 278 176 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 380 525 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 338 1336 807 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 2762 5754 16010
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1685 1160 54 124 133 26 0 0
OW 3 250 36 76 235 162 0 0
VODI 0 34 38 110 395 853 247 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 223 833 445 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 595 864 132
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 2330 5039 15894

Date: 2023-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1490 1687 16 3 0 0 0 0
OW 6 170 41 64 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 51 139 125 12 0 0
ODI 0 2 22 105 164 250 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 428 643 250 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 471 3519 7502 14779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1467 1408 43 71 42 0 0 0
OW 17 246 15 85 69 31 0 0
VODI 12 239 32 78 226 444 21 0
ODI 0 26 40 94 405 747 338 18
CDI 0 0 0 39 152 724 690 51
VCDI 0 0 0 0 294 2478 6714 14726


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